Prairie forecast: Near-average temperatures as messy weather pattern continues

Our current unsettled and—for lack of better word—’messy’ weather pattern looks to continue for at least one more week.

The Prairies saw plenty of unsettled weather last week and temperatures were for the most part near or below average on most days.

This forecast period starts with a fairly large low over Hudson Bay with a trailing front just exiting the eastern Prairies. There’s weak high pressure over Alberta and an area of low pressure is developing over the Yukon. The Alberta high is forecasted to drift eastwards to end up over Manitoba by Friday. This will allow the Yukon low to drop southeastwards into Alberta by Friday.

The weather models then show a strong zonal or westerly flow developing across the Prairies. This flow will quickly pull the Yukon low to the east. A couple of weak disturbances are forecasted to develop and zip through the southern Prairies late in this forecast period. The weak nature of these systems, along with their quick movement, will make forecasting the location and timing of their impact difficult.

Temperatures look to remain near seasonable across the eastern Prairies with western regions seeing near to slightly below average temperatures. While there will be several chances of precipitation, amounts look to be light. Thunderstorms could bring some significant localized amounts.

Alberta

With high pressure in place to start this forecast period, expect plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. As the high drifts eastwards on Thursday and Friday, a southerly flow will develop. This will boost daytime highs into the mid to upper twenties.

The exiting area of high pressure will allow an area of low pressure over the Yukon to begin dropping southeastwards. This will bring increasing cloudiness over northern and central regions on Thursday with the chance of showers and thundershowers.

Southern regions should remain sunny and warm on Thursday. The low looks to move quickly out of the region but a trailing cold front will bring partly cloudy skies to all regions on Friday. There is also the chance of some scattered showers and thundershowers.

High pressure will begin building in from the north over the weekend. This will bring sunny to partly cloudy skies and daytime highs in the low twenties. Expect overnight lows in the 10 to 12 C range.

The weather models are showing a strong upper level westerly flow developing over weekend and into the first half of next week. A couple of weak disturbances are forecast to move quickly along in this flow. Currently it looks like these systems will impact southern regions early next week by bringing clouds and the chance of showers and thundershowers. The fast nature of these systems should preclude any significant rainfall amounts.

The models are then showing a warming trend beginning around Wednesday.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Southern regions of both provinces will see one more day of unsettled weather thanks to a frontal boundary that stretches from a low over Hudson Bay to a second low over Minnesota. This instability should move out late today as high pressure moves in from Alberta. This high will bring sunny to partly cloudy skies on Thursday and Friday with warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the mid to upper twenties with overnight lows falling to around 15 C.

An area of low pressure is forecast to quickly move eastwards out of Alberta on Saturday and track across central regions. This will bring a mix of sun and clouds and the chance of some showers or thundershowers. A trailing frontal boundary will allow for the continuation of partly cloudy skies. There’s also the chance of more showers or thundershowers on Sunday with the best chance of seeing precipitation found over southern Manitoba.

High pressure will begin to build across the Prairies early next week. A couple of weak disturbances are forecasted to quickly move across southern regions thanks to a strong upper-level westerly flow. Exact timing and placement of these systems are uncertain, as it will all depend on just how strong the area of high pressure is and how quickly it builds in. The fast nature of these systems, should they impact southern regions, will limit the amount of precipitation.

Temperatures look to be seasonable with daytime highs in the mid-twenties with overnight lows in the 12 to 14 C range.