Prairie forecast: Quiet pattern continues as winter struggles for a foothold

Forecast issued November 5, covering Nov. 5 to 12, 2025.

Highlights:

• A zonal, east-west flow will help usher in a few weak disturbances with the first significant system to bring snow to central Alberta on Wednesday and early Thursday.
• All regions can expect a cooler weekend with milder conditions arriving early next week.
• Northern regions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba can expect snow, while southern areas can expect rain or wet snow on Thursday.
• Manitoba could see some lake effect snow as cooler air pushes in.

Overview

The weather models performed reasonably well with last week’s forecast but a few details slipped through the cracks. For example, strong winds swept across much of the eastern Prairies last weekend. These produced gusts stronger than most guidance suggested.

For the upcoming forecast period, a large area of low pressure remains anchored off the British Columbia coast, a strong low spins over the Atlantic coast and another, weaker low lingers near Hudson Bay.

Between these systems, the flow across the Prairies is largely zonal, meaning it moves west to east with little north–south movement. That pattern will help usher a few weak disturbances across the region during the next several days.

The first significant system is expected to form over central Alberta on Wednesday as energy from the Pacific low moves inland. This Alberta low is projected to bring an area of accumulating snow to central parts of the province late Wednesday and into Thursday morning.

The system will then track southeastward, crossing Saskatchewan and heading toward Lake Superior by early Friday. Locations north of its path should pick up a few centimetres of snow, while areas to the south will likely see rain or a mix of wet snow and rain, resulting in minimal accumulation.

Related: Forecasting winter 2025-26 in Manitoba.

A second, weaker low is expected to develop over southern Alberta on Saturday. It should move rapidly through southern Saskatchewan before dropping southward into the northern United States. Temperatures will be cold enough for a light coating of snow across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan — one or two centimetres at most.

Behind both systems, a push of colder air will settle over the central and eastern Prairies. This will keep daytime highs below freezing for a few days. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the minus single digits, with some areas under clear skies possibly dipping into the minus teens.

Fortunately, this chill will not last long. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the western Prairies by late Sunday and strengthen through early next week. This will shift the pattern back toward above-average temperatures in Alberta by Sunday or Monday. The milder conditions will spread east into Saskatchewan and Manitoba by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Alberta

Models remain consistent in showing a midweek low developing over central Alberta as Pacific energy moves inland. Snow will develop late Wednesday, tapering by Thursday morning. The system’s quick eastward track should limit snow totals, though localized amounts of several centimetres are possible.

A second low is forecasted to develop on Friday over southern Alberta which may bring scattered showers or light snow depending on its timing and path, before moving out early Saturday.

Cooler air follows, with daytime highs around 0°C across central and northern regions and overnight lows near –8°C. Southern Alberta should stay slightly warmer, with highs of 2°C to 5°C and lows around –4°C. By Monday, the building ridge will bring a strong warming trend, lifting daytime highs back to well above seasonal averages.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

We start this period with a mix of sun and cloud as one weak system exits east and another develops over Alberta. Under a seasonably mild westerly flow, daytime highs will range from 4°C to 7°C and overnight lows near –4°C.

By Thursday, the Alberta low will move quickly southeast, reaching Lake Superior early Friday. Areas north of the low’s track should see 2–5 cm of snow, while southern regions experience mostly rain or wet snow.

Behind the low, cooler air will arrive for the weekend with daytime highs expected to be below 0°C and overnight lows near –10°C.

One point of interest with the push of colder air is a possibility of some lake effect snows from the Manitoba lakes. That’s something to keep an eye on.

The cold air will retreat early next week as high pressure builds from the west, bringing a noticeable warm-up. By midweek, daytime highs are expected to rebound into the 5°C to 10°C range under partly sunny skies.