Prairie forecast: Quiet weather pattern continues with no big winter push

Forecast issued November 19, covering Nov. 19 to 26, 2025.

Highlights:

• Alberta can expect mostly sunshine, light winds and mild temperatures for the first half of the forecast period.
• Saskatchewan and Manitoba can expect a moderate weather pattern with no major storm systems.

Overview

This forecast is beginning to sound a bit like a broken record. The weather pattern keeps looping, and while there are small variations from week to week, the overall theme remains unchanged. The only notable difference is that every repeated pattern comes with a gradual step-down in temperature, reminding us that winter is steadily tightening its grip.

We head into this forecast period with a primarily zonal west-to-east flow stretched across the Prairies. A weak upper ridge is lending a slight southerly tilt to the pattern, which is helping to keep temperatures on the mild side for now.

To the west, a significant low-pressure system continues to organize in the Gulf of Alaska, while another broad but less intense low sits over northeastern Canada. This combination is helping support the subtle upper-level ridging that has taken shape over the southern Prairies.

As the week progresses, the Gulf of Alaska low is forecasted to push most of its energy into northern Canada with a series of lows moving eastwards across the north. This will help to bottle up most of cold air well into north regions for most of this forecast period.

As we enter the last week of November, the models are showing some of the energy along the B.C. coast pushing inland. This will create an area of low pressure that will track across the central Prairies late in this forecast period. This low has the potential to bring a few centimeters of snow, but as usual, forecasts that far out are prone to high levels of uncertainty.

Alberta

A simple, largely uneventful stretch of weather lies ahead as weak upper-level ridging takes control for much of the period.

Ridging will strengthen from Wednesday through Saturday. This will promote widespread sunshine, light winds, and temperatures that lean well above what is typical for late November. Southern Alberta can expect daytime highs between 5 and 10°C, while central and northern areas should see highs ranging from 2 to 5°C.

Over the weekend, an area of low pressure tracking well north of the province could bring a few cloudy periods with the chance of the odd shower or flurry to northern regions. Across the south, skies look to be clear to partly cloudy with temperatures continuing to be above average for this time of the year.

More weather coverage: Western B.C., parts of Prairies received drought relief in October.

Early next week, another Pacific low is expected to push into Alberta and move generally eastward through the central part of the province. Current data suggests this low will weaken significantly as it crosses the Rockies, losing much of its structure before reaching the foothills. Cloudier skies, patchy light snow, and a general shift toward cooler temperatures are the most likely outcomes.

Once the system exits, colder air will slide in behind it. This will bring temperatures down by next Tuesday or Wednesday. Southern Alberta is forecast to settle into the –3 to –5°C range, with central and northern regions dipping deeper, likely landing between –5 and –10°C.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Much like Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are heading into a calm and relatively straightforward period. No major storm systems are expected, and the overall pattern remains mild.

The forecast period begins with a very weak low passing through. This will bring cloudier skies paired with widely scattered showers, ice pellets, and flurries. This weak system will move into northwestern Ontario by Friday, clearing the way for improving skies and maintaining temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms. Highs are expected to hover between 0 and 4°C.

The quiet pattern is expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week as a broad but subtle upper ridge attempts to build across the region.

By Tuesday or Wednesday, models show a developing low moving out of Alberta and tracking across south-central Saskatchewan and Manitoba. If the system develops as projected, areas north of its path may see a quick burst of 2 to 5 cm of snow before it pushes into Ontario.

Behind the low, a push of colder Arctic air will drop temperatures noticeably. By Wednesday, daytime highs should fall into the –5 to –10°C range, marking the first more widespread dip toward early winter cold across the eastern Prairies.