Prairie forecast: unsettled to start then clearing and warmer

Once again, the weather models are in good agreement so confidence in this forecast is fairly high. The only possible issue is that the different weather systems are rather weak which means timing of the systems can change easily.

This forecast period starts off with two weak areas of low pressure, one over southern Manitoba, and the other over Alberta.

The Manitoba system is the last remains of the energy and moisture from Hurricane Hilary. This system will bring clouds, showers, along with the chance of thundershowers today across much of southern and central Manitoba. While the track of that hurricane was interesting, it didn’t bring much in the form of heavy widespread rains.

The Alberta low originated from the Pacific and is also bringing plenty of clouds, showers, and the odd thundershower to much of central and northern Alberta today and into Thursday.

The Manitoba system should exit the prairies by Thursday with the Alberta low tracking southeastwards across Saskatchewan on Thursday and into Manitoba late Thursday and into Friday morning. Areas along and to the north of the low’s track will see showers and thundershowers along with cooler temperatures.

High pressure is then forecasted to settle in across the prairies late in the week and into the weekend bringing sunny skies and warm temperatures. The eastern prairies will see seasonable temperatures with western regions seeing above average temperatures.

Late in the weekend and into the start of the last week of August, the weather models are showing an area of low-pressure dropping southeastwards out of the territories. This feature looks like it will only impact Manitoba with the chance of showers and cooler temperatures. Western regions look to remain sunny, dry, and warm as a ridge of high pressure builds across the region.

Alberta

Wednesday and part of Thursday will see plenty of clouds and showers with the chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the central and northern regions due to the developing area of low pressure. Temperatures over these regions will be cool with daytime high in the upper teens.

In the south, skies will be sunny to partly cloudy with daytime highs forecasted to be in the low twenties. Skies will begin to clear out in the north by Thursday afternoon as the low moves off to the east.

High pressure will begin to build across the province which looks to bring sunny skies with temperatures warming into the mid to upper twenties by the weekend with low thirties a good possibility to start next week.

Saskatchewan

This region will see a more sun than clouds Wednesday with the chance of some showers thanks to the low over Manitoba. There won’t be much of a break over central and northern regions as more clouds and showers move in from the Alberta low on Thursday.

Over the south, skies should be partly cloudy with only a slight chance of a shower or afternoon thundershower. Temperatures look to be in the upper teens to low twenties, depending on the amount of clouds and precipitation.

Skies should clear out by Friday, allowing for sunny skies all weekend with temperatures slowly warming into the mid-twenties with overnight lows falling into the low teens. A low forecasted to drop southeastwards out of the territories may bring the odd shower or thundershower sometime on Sunday especially over eastern regions.

A building ridge of high pressure to the west will bring a return to sunshine and warm temperatures to start the last week of August with daytime highs pushing into the upper twenties to low thirties.

Manitoba

On Wednesday, southern and central Manitoba will have to deal with plenty of clouds along with scattered showers and possibly afternoon thundershowers as an area of low-pressure tracks across the region. Temperatures will be cool under the heavy cloud cover with daytime highs only getting to around the 20 C mark.

This area of low pressure will be quickly followed by the Alberta low on Thursday meaning more clouds, showers, and cool temperatures. The Alberta low looks like it will move off to the southeast by Friday afternoon allow for high pressure to build in bringing sunny skies and seasonable temperatures over the weekend. Expect daytime highs in the low to mid-twenties with overnight lows in the low teens.

Late in the weekend this region will need to watch an area of low pressure forecasted to drop southeastwards out of the territories. Current indications are for the track of the low to bring clouds and shower to mostly central and northern regions beginning Saturday night and lasting through to Sunday afternoon, but southern regions don’t look to be in the clear. Temperatures will be cool with this system with the clouds and showers keeping daytime highs right around 20 C.

Once this low drops by, the weather models are showing the western ridge of high-pressure expanding eastwards bringing a return of sunny skies and warm temperatures. Expect daytime high by next Tuesday or Wednesday to be back into the upper twenties to around 30 C.

— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.