Prairie forecast: Warm-hot start then slow cooldown

The weather models have been doing a good job with the overall weather picture over the last several weeks, despite a fairly unsettled, tough-to-figure-out weather pattern. In this next forecast period, it will again be tough to figure out some of the finer details as our region experiences weak highs, lows, and even the possibility of a weak upper low. All these weak features mean the timings of systems will be hard to decipher and can easily vary by a day or two.

To start off, we have a weak area of low pressure departing to the east out of the northern prairies while to the west, a weak area of low pressure tries to develop over western Alberta. In between, a weak ridge of high pressure is in place bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures to the southern prairies.

The weather models are showing the Alberta low ambling northeast over the week before moving off into Ontario over the long weekend. This low will mostly affect central and northern regions and does not look strong, bringing only widely scattered showers, thundershowers, with maybe the odd thunderstorm. Southern regions look to be mostly sunny and warm. There could be the odd stray thunderstorm, but the probability is low.

For the last few days of this forecast period, we’ll keep an eye out for a potential small upper low dropping southwards over the eastern prairies. If this does occur, expect a cool down with a return to sunny mornings followed by afternoon clouds and thundershowers. Western regions look to see nice but cool weather as a surface high builds in from the north.

Alberta

The North-central and Peace River regions will see unsettled weather starting Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as an area of low pressure develops over southern Alberta. The counterclockwise flow around the low will push warm air northwestwards, helping to fuel showers and thunderstorms. Southern regions will be hot with daytime highs in to the low to mid-thirties with temperatures cooling as you move north with daytime high under the clouds expected to be in the low twenties.

Over the long weekend, thing should clear out. Extreme southern regions may see a stray shower or thundershower as a disturbance tracks by to the south. Temperatures will be nice with daytime highs in the mid-twenties and overnight lows in the low to mid-teens.

To start off the week of August 7th, the weather models are showing an area of high pressure building in from the north. This will bring mostly sunny skies to northern and central regions along with cooler temperatures. Expect daytime highs to drop back down to around the 20 C range with overnight lows falling into the single upper digits. With the cooler air, the odd afternoon thundershower can’t be ruled out. Another disturbance to the south of Alberta could bring some unsettled weather to far southern regions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Saskatchewan

A short and to the point forecast for Saskatchewan. This forecast period will start off hot with daytime highs ranging from the low to mid-thirties in the south to the upper twenties to the low thirties in the north. Temperatures will cool a few degrees as we work towards the long weekend. The Alberta low will track through central and northern regions on late on Thursday and into Friday morning bringing with a chance for a few scattered thundershowers or possibly a thunderstorm.

Over the long weekend, expect to see plenty of sunshine and nice mid-summer temperatures. Expect daytime highs in the mid-twenties with overnight lows in the low to mid-teens. To start the week of August 7, the weather models are showing an upper low dropping southwards into Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan. Should this materialize as forecasted, expect cooler temperatures with daytime highs in the upper teens to around 20 C. Also expect unsettled conditions in the afternoons, especially over eastern regions.

Manitoba

Much like Saskatchewan, expect sunny and warm-hot conditions to start off this forecast period. Expect mainly sunny skies with daytime highs right around the 30 C mark with overnight lows only falling into the mid to upper teens. With the heat there is a small chance of seeing a few widely scattered late-day thunderstorms. The long weekend looks to be nice with sunny to partly cloudy skies along with daytime highs in the mid to upper twenties.

Our eyes then turn to the week of August 7. The weather models are showing a small upper low dropping southwards into Manitoba. This will bring a return to the cool unsettled weather this region saw in early July. The weather models are also showing an area of low pressure moving up from the southwest on Tuesday. This low will then deepen thanks to the upper low bringing what looks to be widespread showers, thundershowers, and possibly thunderstorms to most of southern and central regions on Tuesday and Wednesday before moving off into northwestern Ontario. Expect much cooler temperatures with highs struggling to make it to 20 C.

— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.