Soybeans to gain, corn to lose U.S. acres, USDA report predicts

MarketsFarm — More soybean acres are projected to be seeded in the United States this year, while fewer corn acres will be planted according to a report that has surprised analysts.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its survey-based Prospective Plantings report on Thursday and the projected acreage numbers for two of the country’s major crop have bucked earlier predictions.

USDA estimates intended plantings for soybeans to reach a record 91 million acres in 2022, up 4.3 per cent from the 87.2 million acres planted in 2021. While the total was within the range of analysts’ predictions (86 million to 92.2 million), the total is higher than USDA’s February Outlook Forum estimate (88 million) and the average prediction from analysts (88.7 million).

However, soybean acreage numbers in the March intentions report have a historical tendency to overestimate actual acreage numbers. Only three times over the past 15 years (2008, 2014 and 2017) have actual totals been larger than the March estimates.

Meanwhile, corn acreage is projected to total 89.5 million acres in 2022, 4.1 per cent lower than the 93.4 million acres grown in 2021. The lower end of analysts’ predictions for corn acreage was 89.7 million, with both USDA’s February Outlook Forum and analysts previously estimating 92 million acres.

The high costs of fertilizer and fuel, as well as higher prices for other commodities, may be steering growers away from corn and towards soybeans. Over the past six March reports, corn acreage has been over- and under-estimated three times each.

The estimated planted area of all wheat for 2022, according to USDA, will be 47.4 million acres. The figure represents a 1.4 per cent increase from 2021’s actual acreage of 46.7 million. Unlike soybeans and corn, the estimate provided in the report was close to previous projections as both USDA and analysts had predicted 48 million acres. Analysts pegged the upper limit of the range of estimates at 48.9 million.

Despite the increase, the 48 million acres would be the fifth-lowest acreage total for wheat in the U.S. since 1919. Out of all wheat, 34.2 million acres would be winter wheat, an increase of 1.7 per cent from 2021.

USDA also released its grain stocks report on March 31. Soybean stocks were up 24 per cent from 2021 to 1.93 billion bushels as of March 1. Wheat stocks were down 22 per cent from the year before at 1.02 billion bushels. Corn stocks totalled 7.85 billion bushels, a year-by-year increase of two per cent.