USDA attaché forecasts larger Chinese corn, wheat crops

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Corn and wheat production in China is expected to increase in 2025/26, the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Beijing said in a report released July 3.

While area harvested in China is projected to remain stable in the new crop year, the attaché said yields are expected to improve.

China’s corn yield was forecast to increase to 6.66 tonnes per hectare from last year’s 6.59, while the area harvested is to remain unchanged at 44.74 million hectares. That’s to bring the country’s 2025/26 corn harvest to 298 million tonnes, up from 294.92 million the previous year.

Corn imports are to increase by one million tonnes at eight million. However, that’s still far below the 23.41 million tonnes China imported in 2023/24, as the government implements policies to reduce reliance on imports.

Exports are to remain very small at only 20,000 tonnes, but that’s nearly seven times the amount in 2023/24.

Total consumption is to rise by three million tonnes in 2025/26 at 321 million and the carryout is to drop 15.02 million tonnes at 180.16 million.

China’s wheat

The Beijing desk said increases to China’s wheat crop are smaller, with production to add 990,000 tonnes in 2025/26 at 141 million.

Area harvested is virtually unchanged at 23.60 million hectares with yields nudging from 5.94 tonnes per hectare to 5.97.

The most notable change to China’s wheat crop is a 1.5 million-tonne increase to imports at six million, the attaché said. However, that’s less than half of the foreign wheat purchased in 2023/24. Meanwhile, exports are to hold at one million tonnes in 2025/26.

Also, total wheat consumption for 2025/26 is to increase by three million tonnes from last year’s 150 million tonnes, but ending stocks are to drop seven million tonnes at 121.10 million.