USDA attaché sees Canadian wheat production holding firm

Glacier FarmMedia — All wheat production in Canada is to remain relatively steady in 2025/26 said the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Ottawa. In the attaché’s report released on July 28, they forecast 35.15 million tonnes compared to 34.96 million in 2024/25.

A week earlier, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projected all wheat production for 2025/26 at 34.43 million tonnes.

The USDA attaché warned that drought on the Canadian Prairies could impact the country’s total wheat output and noted trade is also an issue.

“Ongoing tariffs on canola from China and the United States pushed producers toward spring wheat, boosting acreage and potentially stabilizing prices amid ample supply,” the attaché wrote.

“While MY 2025/26 production is forecast to increase over the previous year, poor crop conditions in regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan could drag down the current yield forecast, reducing production down from the current forecast,” they continued.

The Ottawa desk forecast Canada’s harvested wheat area at 10.75 million hectares which up slightly from last year’s 10.65 million, with both matching AAFC’s calls. Yields are to be virtually unchanged at nearly 3.27 tonnes per hectare, both government agencies agreed.

In the attaché’s numbers there’s to be a slight dip in exports at 27 million tonnes versus 27.50 million in 2024/25, due in part of trade tensions with the U.S. despite wheat being largely covered in the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement.

In AAFC’s July report, it projected all wheat exports at 25.70 million tonnes, down from 27.20 million in 2024/25.

Domestically, total consumption in Canada is to step back to 8.79 million tonnes compared to nine million last year. Meanwhile, AAFC placed those numbers at 8.56 million for 2025/26 and 8.46 million for the previous year.

The USDA attaché estimated wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 to be just short of 3.60 million tonnes compared to 3.64 million a year ago. However, AAFC had much different figures of 4.30 million tonnes for 2025/26, up from four million last year.