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USDA pegs wheat ending stocks to be lowest since 2013-14

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MarketsFarm — As the U.S. northern Plains continue to deal with severe drought conditions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has significantly lowered its 2021-22 ending stocks estimates for wheat — especially durum and spring wheat.

According to USDA’s monthly world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) released Monday, 2021-22 ending stocks for wheat are projected to total 665 million bushels, a 105 million or 13.6 per cent decline from June’s estimate of 770 million.

While beginning stocks slightly declined to 844 million bushels compared to June’s estimate of 852 million, wheat production was the major contributor to the drop in projected ending stocks. The report predicts 1.746 billion bushels of wheat to be harvested, a 152 million-bushel or eight per cent loss from June’s estimate of 1.898 billion.

Durum is projected to have beginning stocks of 28 million bushels and ending stocks of 20 million, while hard red spring wheat will start with 235 million and end with only 119 million, a 49.4 per cent decrease.

USDA also revised its 2021-22 projection for world wheat ending stocks, down from its June estimate of 10.91 billion bushels to 10.72 billion, a decline of 190 million or 1.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, corn is heading in the opposite direction as USDA increased its 2021-22 ending stock projections for the crop. The new projection is 1.432 billion bushels, compared to June’s estimate of 1.357 billion bushels, a rise of 75 million or 5.5 per cent.

While the estimate for beginning stocks slipped from 1.107 billion bushels to 1.082 billion, production made up for the decline and then some, increasing from 14.99 billion to nearly 15.17 billion.

World ending stocks for corn also rose from 11.39 billion to 11.46 billion, an increase of 70 million bushels or 0.6 per cent.

No changes were made between the June and July estimates for soybeans. U.S. ending stocks are expected to total 155 million bushels, while the estimate for world ending stocks was increased from the June estimate of 3.4 billion bushels to this month’s estimate of 3.47 billion, an increase of 70 million or two per cent.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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