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USDA’s September supply/demand data contain few surprises

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MarketsFarm — There was few, if any, surprises to be found for grain traders in the latest supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The September world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) was pretty much stand-pat in terms of U.S. corn and soybeans, according to trader Andrew Mages of Progressive Ag at Fargo, N.D.

“The USDA didn’t do the big surprise in the acreage and yields,” Mages said, noting the department’s soybean acreage numbers were favourable.

“That was a little bit of surprise. Ending stocks did go up, which was expected, but not by a great deal.”

Markets had been moving downward in the weeks ahead of the report, but took something of a spiral after USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) accidentally released its number two days early. There were increases in the FSA’s projections for corn and soybean acres of around one per cent each. Mages said USDA opted to keep its numbers largely the same as in its August WASDE.

For corn, the new supply and demand report pegged 2021-22 planted acres at 93.3 million, for an increase of 0.65 per cent from August. Yield were raised by 0.97 per cent at 176.3 bushels per acre, which upped production 1.67 per cent and a smidge under 15 billion bushels. In turn, that brought ending stocks to almost 1.41 billion bushels, up by 13.34 per cent from last month.

Mages said the September numbers for corn weren’t as bearish as expected and it should find its “harvest bottom” within a month. Until then, he expects corn to remain within the range it’s in now.

Table: Data from USDA’s September 2021 WASDE report, in millions of acres; yields in bushels per acre; production/exports/carryout in millions of bushels.

CORN Acres.   . Yield Prod Exports.   . Carryout
2020-21 90.8 172.0 14,182 2,755 1,187
August 92.7 174.6 14,750 2,400 1,242
September 93.3 176.3 14,996 2,745 1,408
SOYBEANS.  . Acres Yield.  . Prod Exports Carryout
2020-21 83.1 50.2 4,135 2,260 175
August 87.6 50.0 4,339 2,055 155
September 87.2 50.6 4,374 2,090 185
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