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ICE Canola Firm, But Chart Resistance Holding

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By Phil Franz-Warkentin

 

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Resource News International

May 6, 2010

Winnipeg – ICE Canada canola futures were steady to higher in the most actively traded contracts Thursday morning, finding some ongoing support from the recent weakness in the Canadian dollar. However, the commodity remained hard pressed to break out of its well established trading range.

The weaker Canadian dollar helps improve domestic crush margins and makes canola more attractive to export customers pricing in US dollars.

Cool, wet weather conditions over the past week have stalled canola plantings across western Canada, according to the Canola Council of Canada. While the delayed plantings may be providing some support for prices, traders noted that temperatures are forecast to warm up and the moisture will be good for the crop overall.

Calls for a firmer start in the CBOT soy complex were providing some spillover buying interest in canola, as weekly US export sales came in above market expectations, said traders. The outside markets were mixed, with Malaysian palm oil futures moving lower in overnight trade and European rapeseed values weakening slightly.

Any upside in both soybeans and canola may be limited by the ongoing uncertainty in the global financial markets. Large South American soybean supplies and generally favourable North American crop conditions should also limit any advances in canola, said traders.

Technical resistance could also put some pressure on canola values, as the market tests the top end of its well established trading range, said a market analyst.

About 870 canola contracts had traded as of 8:39 CDT.

Western barley futures were untraded and unchanged in overnight activity.

Prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton at 8:39 CDT:

    Price Change
Canola
  Jul 390.80 unch
  Nov 393.10 up 0.30
  Jan 396.80 unch
 
Western Barley
  Jul 145.50 unch
  Oct 145.50 unch