ICE Canola Midday: Confusing future for Canadian oilseed
Tariff threats vs. tighter supplies
By Glen Hallick
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures were climbing higher late Thursday morning, propelled by gains in Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed.
Additional support came from upticks in Chicago soybeans, while soymeal eased back. Slight increases in crude oil were spilling over into the vegetable oils.
While an analyst said the canola market is currently bullish, he emphasized there’s also a great deal of confusion, largely due to tariff threats being made by United States Donald Trump. The analyst noted that incoming secretaries for agriculture and energy, along with the new head of the Environmental Protection Agency are said to be anti-biofuel. He surmised that the 45Z biofuel tax credit in the U.S. is most likely dead. That in turn is a major threat to canola oil exports to the U.S., Canada’s largest customer.
The analyst suggested that along with the above plus the looming tariff threat from China, canola futures would be more than C$700 per tonne. He said that with the current rate of canola exports and domestic use, some form of price rationing needs to be implemented eventually.
The Canadian dollar dipped at mid-session Thursday, with the loonie at 69.52 U.S. cents compared to Wednesday’s close of 69.59.
Approximately 26,000 canola contracts were traded as of 10:24 am CST, with prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Mar 639.70 up 9.60 May 648.70 up 8.90 Jul 654.80 up 8.10 Nov 641.40 up 5.20
