ICE Canola Midday: Looking to extend this week’s rally
Growing need for StatCan to revise production estimate
By Glen Hallick
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures continued higher late Friday morning in an attempt to extend the oilseed’s rally to a fourth session.
An analyst suggested the impetus for yesterday’s sharp gains was spillover from a hike in Chicago soyoil. That he said was spurred on by “a growing confidence the United States government will raise its biodiesel/biofuel mandate.”
The analyst also said Statistics Canada needs to revise its canola production estimate for 2024/25 of 17.38 million tonnes However, he noted that likely won’t occur until the agency’s September report at the earliest.
The Canadian Grain Commission reported on Thursday that year-to-date canola exports have exceeded 7.50 million tonnes. That put them above the projection from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in its most recent supply and demand report. The analyst said the situation could lead AAFC to go negative in its feed waste dockage estimate.
Outside support for canola was mixed, with Chicago soybeans and soymeal lower while soyoil was relatively steady. European rapeseed was mostly to the downside while Malaysian palm oil bumped up. Slight upticks in crude oil weren’t providing much direction to the vegetable oils.
The Canadian dollar was higher by mid-session Friday with the loonie at 72.16 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 72.09.
A reminder that May options expire today, and first notice day is Wednesday.
Approximately 38,750 canola contracts were traded as of 10:39 am CDT, with prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola May 694.50 up 2.10 Jul 700.00 up 2.60 Nov 662.90 up 5.80 Jan 667.00 up 5.90
