ICE Canola Midday: Prices recover little, but still down hard
China announces canola dumping probe
By Glen Hallick
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures continued to fall sharply on Tuesday, buy made some recovery after posting down-limit losses in early activity.
The steep declines this morning came as a result of China announcing plans to launch an investigation into canola dumping by Canada. That’s in response to Canada hiking tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum. The markets reacted very quickly, driving prices down hard in heavy volumes.
“You’re protecting the auto industry at the expense of canola,” an analyst commented. However, he added, “we can’t overreact to this…it’s just a probe into sales, not an actual shutdown.”
China’s canola imports for 2023/24 tallied 4.92 million tonnes, according to Canadian Grain Commission data, accounting for nearly 72 per cent of all of Canada’s exports of the oilseed.
The analyst also pointed out that canola production in the European Union and Ukraine has been reduced this year. Meanwhile, Australia’s projected canola output of 5.5 million tonnes is down eight per cent from 2023/24.
“China’s [import demand] would need all of that,” the analyst noted.
Also not helping matters today have been declines in Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Sharp losses in crude oil only poured fuel on the downturn in vegetable oils. Some measure of support came from upticks in Chicago soybeans and soymeal.
The Canadian dollar stepped back by late Tuesday morning, with the loonie at 73.82 U.S. cents compared to Friday’s close of 74.12.
Approximately 92,700 canola contracts were traded as of 10:34 am CDT, with prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 595.00 dn 29.70 Jan 598.40 dn 25.40 Mar 608.70 dn 20.10 May 612.10 dn 20.10
