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ICE Canola Weaker On Bearish Technicals

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By Phil Franz-Warkentin

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Resource News International

July 8, 2009

Winnipeg – ICE Canada canola futures traded to both sides of unchanged in overnight activity, but were mostly lower by 8:42 CDT Wednesday morning as the market lacked much incentive to move higher.

After dropping sharply lower on Monday and Tuesday there were some thoughts that canola could be due for a corrective bounce higher, according to a market analyst. However, he added that the charts are looking decidedly bearish for canola, and any signs of strength will be taken as a selling opportunity.

Overnight losses in Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed, along with a mixed tone in CBOT soybeans, should also weigh on canola, according to traders. A firmer Canadian dollar, weaker equities, and losses in crude oil were also seen as bearish for canola.

On the other side, a lack of farmer selling should provide some support for the market. Crop conditions also remain a concern in some areas despite recent rainfall and should remain a supportive influence until the market gets a better handle on production prospects.

Early activity in canola was light, with 377 contracts having been traded as of 8:42 CDT.

Western barley futures were untraded in overnight activity.

Prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton at 8:42 CDT:

    Price Change
Canola
  Nov 423.10 dn 0.70
  Jan 426.10 dn 1.40
  Mar 432.60 unch
 
Western Barley
  Oct 173.10 unch
  Nov 187.80 unch