North American Grain and Oilseed Review: An about-face for canola
U.S. soybeans, corn rise as wheat drops back
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures turned around to close higher on Tuesday, although gains faded from earlier highs.
For a second day, the old crop July contract broke through its psychological support level of C$600 per tonne, but again recovered sufficiently to close above it.
Support for canola came from gains in the Chicago soy complex and European rapeseed, while Malaysian palm oil was steady to higher. Advances in crude oil lent more support to the oilseeds.
An analyst stated there will be large crops across the Prairies once the region’s temperatures turn normal to above normal. Until then parts of Alberta contended with overnight frost.
The Canadian dollar was higher by mid-afternoon Tuesday with the loonie at 72.91 U.S. cents compared to Monday’s close of 72.76.
There were 56,328 contracts traded on Tuesday, compared to the 49,745 contracts that changed hands on Monday. Spreading accounted for 25,116 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Jul 609.40 up 4.10 Nov 626.10 up 1.80 Jan 632.60 up 2.30 Mar 635.80 up 2.40
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Tuesday with the strongest gains in the old crop contracts.
The United States Department of Agriculture issued its crop progress report with soybeans planted at 93 per cent complete as of June 16. That’s a gain of six points on the week and two ahead of the five-year average. Soybeans emerged advanced 12 points at 82 per cent, three ahead of the average. The crop country-wide rated 70 per cent good to excellent, slipping two points from the previous week.
The USDA is scheduled to publish its quarterly stocks and planted acreage reports on June 28.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor kept his call on 2024/25 U.S. soybean production at 4.46 billion bushels and the national yield at 52 bushels per acre. Also he left his estimates for 2023/24 Brazil and Argentina soybean output at 147 million and 50 million tonnes respectively.
Abiove cut 1.4 million tonnes from its forecast of the Brazil soybean harvest at 152.5 million tonnes.
Farmer selling of Brazil soybeans has reportedly picked up on rumours of tax changes or increases that could be imposed by the Lula government.
Due to the Juneteenth holiday in the U.S., the markets will be closed from Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening. That will delay the USDA’s export sales report from Thursday to Friday.
CORN futures were higher on Tuesday, getting spillover from soybeans and higher crude oil.
The USDA reported corn emerged at 93 per cent, up eight points from last week and virtually on par with the average. The crop’s condition was 72 per cent good to excellent, a dip of two points from a week ago.
With Wednesday’s holiday the U.S. Energy Information Administration has postponed its ethanol report to Thursday.
Cordonnier maintained his estimates for upcoming U.S. corn production at 14.62 billion bushels on a yield of 179 BPA. He also kept his forecasts on Brazil and Argentina corn production at 114 million and 47 million tonnes respectively.
Leading oil and farm lobby groups, including the National Corn Growers Association, said they are suing the Biden administration over its plans to cut motor vehicle tailpipe emissions.
WHEAT futures were lower on Tuesday due to good crop prospects.
U.S. spring wheat emerged rose eight points on the week at 95 per cent, two ahead of the average. The crop was 73 per cent good to excellent, nudging up one from last week.
The winter wheat harvest progressed 15 points at 27 complete, which is 13 ahead of the average. The condition was 49 per cent good to excellent, up two points.
There’s been more rain for the dry wheat growing areas of Russia and Ukraine.
Wheat prices in Ukraine are expected to rise three to eight per cent in 2024, according to consultancy ASAP Agri. The increase was based on a 1.5 million-tonne drop in 2024/25 wheat production at 21.0 million.
