North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Another day of gains for canola

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed higher on Wednesday, as its November contract pushed further above its now former resistance level of C$600 per tonne.

A trader commented that support from technicals and short covering propelled canola upward. The November contract surpassed its 20 and 50-day moving averages. However, farmer selling put some pressure on canola.

The trader said the canola market is ignoring the strike by grain workers at the Port of Vancouver, believing the federal government will resolve the labour dispute sooner rather than later.

Also, he noted the trade continued to ignore China’s investigation into alleged canola dumping by Canada. He cautioned the matter could have an impact much further down the road.

Additional support for the Canadian oilseed came from increases in the Chicago soy complex, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Declines in crude oil tried to put a lid on further upticks in the vegetable oils.

Statistics Canada reported the August canola crush processed 850,529 tonnes, 2.5 per cent more than in August 2023. Also, StatCan said deliveries of canola last month came to 1.31 million tonnes, a jump of nearly 35 per cent from a year ago.

The Manitoba harvest reached 58 per cent complete overall, with the province’s canola at 55 per cent finished.

By mid-afternoon Wednesday, the Canadian dollar dipped to 74.20 U.S. cents compared to Tuesday’s close of 74.25.

There were 68,316 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 51,891 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 39,980 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

Price     Change

Canola          Nov     611.30    up  7.70

Jan     624.20    up  8.10

Mar     635.90    up  8.10

May     643.90    up  7.90

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Wednesday, along with sharp upticks in soyoil. Soymeal closed higher as well after a bout of choppy trading.

Ahead of the quarterly stocks report from the United States Department of Agriculture on Monday, the trade projected soybeans at 351 million bushels. That’s higher than the 340 million bushels the USDA listed for ending stocks in its September supply and demand report.

Heat and dryness continued in Brazil with temperatures forecast to exceed 35 degrees Celsius in parts of Mato Grasso and Mato Grasso do Sul.

Exporter group ANEC forecast Brazil’s September soybean exports to be 5.82 million tonnes along with 1.97 million tonnes in soymeal exports.

The Rosario Grain Exchange projected Argentina’s total grain and oilseed production for 2024/25 at 143.0 million tonnes, with total exports possibly as much as 101.50 million tonnes.

The European Commission said the European Union’s soybean imports so far in the 2024/25 marketing year were 2.81 million tonnes, plus 1.16 million tonnes of canola.

CORN futures were modestly higher on Wednesday, taking their cue from spillover from soybeans and wheat, but getting pressure from declines in crude oil.

Reports said Tropical Storm Helene will likely produce significant rainfall for the U.S. Eastern Corn Belt in the coming days, which could pose a threat to corn and soybeans crops in the region.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production for the week ended Sept. 20 averaged 994,000 barrels per day, dropping 55,000 BPD. Ethanol stocks decreased by 300,000 barrels at 23.50 million.

The USDA announced a flash sale for 180,000 tonnes of current crop corn to Mexico.

Average trade estimates pegged U.S. corn stocks as of Sept. 1 at 1.84 billion bushels compared to the 1.81 billion in this month’s S/D report.

ANEC placed Brazil’s September corn exports at 6.68 million tonnes.

EU corn imports so far in 2024/25 reached 4.72 million tonnes.

Ukraine said its grain exports are up nearly 59 per cent in 2024/25, at 6.2 million tonnes. Of that 2.7 million tonnes is corn.

WHEAT futures were on the rise Wednesday with double digit increases for Chicago and Kansas City and more modest gains for Minneapolis.

Quarterly stocks of U.S. wheat are expected to be 1.97 billion bushels compared to the 1.77 billion the USDA included in its monthly S/D estimates.

Reports said the Biden administration is watching the negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance. The current agreement between the two expires Sept. 30 with negotiations still ongoing. Should talks fail, a strike could start Oct. 1.

EU soft wheat exports reached 5.86 million tonnes, compared to 7.67 million this time last year.

Ukraine’s wheat exports in 2024/25 are 5.6 million tonnes, with 2.3 million in September.