North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Bullish market heading into confusing future
Chicago soybeans, corn move upward
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed higher on Thursday in a bullish market.
Support from gains in Chicago soybeans and soyoil, along with those in European rapeseed helped to push canola upward today. However, gains were tempered by declines in Chicago soymeal and Malaysian palm oil. Losses in crude oil weighed on vegetable oil values.
An analyst stated canola has a very confusing future ahead of it. There are the threats of tariffs from the United States and China, plus growing uncertainty of U.S. biofuel tax credits. On the other side, the current pace of Canada’s canola exports and domestic use is bound to force price rationing at some point in the 2024/25 marketing year.
The Canadian dollar nudged up on Thursday afternoon with the loonie at 69.64 U.S. cents compared to Wednesday’s close of 69.59.
There were 51,075 contracts traded on Thursday, compared to 40,708 on Wednesday. Spreading accounted for 27,008 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Mar 637.40 up 7.30 May 646.30 up 6.50 Jul 652.10 up 5.40 Nov 639.10 up 2.90
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Thursday, getting help from gains in soyoil and South American weather.
Temperatures in Argentina are forecast to be above normal for the next two weeks, threatening the country’s crops but some rain is forecast in the coming five days.
The incoming United States secretaries of agriculture and energy, plus the new head of the Environmental Protection Agency, reportedly have unfavourable views towards biofuels. That’s led to concerns that U.S. biofuel tax credits could be eliminated.
The USDA postponed its weekly export sales report to Friday due to Monday’s holiday.
The Brazilian ag ministry stated China halted its soybean purchases from five Brazil companies due to pesticides and insects. The ministry asserted the matter will be rectified.
World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said trade wars would be “catastrophic” for the global economy if the Trump administration proceeds with its tariffs.
CORN futures were higher on Thursday in sympathy with soybeans.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production averaged nearly 1.10 million barrels per day, above the average trade guess of 1.09 million. Stocks increased from 25.01 million barrels to 25.35 million.
The USDA attaché in Beijing agreed with the department’s estimate for corn production in China in 2024/25 at 294.92 million tonnes. But the attaché upped total consumption to 318 million tonnes and lowered ending stocks to 202.18 million tonnes.
The USDA attaché in South Africa lowered the country’s corn output from 2024/25 to 16 million tonnes but raised total consumption to 13.90 million tonnes and kept ending stocks at 1.41 million.
WHEAT futures were steady to lower on Thursday, with losses in Kansas City and Minneapolis.
ADM declared a force majeure as the loading of grain vessels at a number of its Gulf Coast ports was halted by a severe winter storm.
The Beijing desk kept to the USDA’s estimate on wheat production in China for 2024/25 at 140.10 million tonnes but bumped up ending stocks to 133.60 million.
Japan purchased 126,893 tonnes of wheat from Australia, Canada and the U.S. while Thailand didn’t find a buyer for its tender for 195,000 tonnes.
