North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola clings to small increases
Gains at CBOT slip back, with some losses
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures barely hung on to its gains Wednesday, as support from comparable oils evaporated.
Upticks in Chicago soyoil and soymeal, as well as European rapeseed turned into losses. There were increases in Chicago soybeans while Malaysian palm oil was mixed. Advances in crude oil tempered those declines in the vegetable oils.
Tighter canola supplies underpinned the oilseed’s values as Statistics Canada and the United States Department of Agriculture lowered their calls on the 2024/25 Canadian canola harvest.
There are expectations the speculative funds could add to their short positions. Also, the January canola contract was above or close to most of its major moving averages.
After the Bank of Canada chopped its key interest rates by 50 basis points Wednesday morning, the Canadian dollar gave up its initial increases and was virtually unchanged at 70.61 U.S. cents.
There were 76,707 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 90,781 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 56,908 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Jan 622.10 up 0.40 Mar 630.70 up 1.10 May 637.00 up 0.80 Jul 639.60 up 0.60
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Wednesday, although they gave up ground towards the end of the session. Meanwhile, soyoil and soymeal forfeited their advances to close lower.
Ahead of tomorrow’s export sales report from the United States Department of Agriculture, the trade projected current crop soybeans at 1.50 million to 2.20 million tonnes. Soymeal is expected to be 175,000 to 450,000 tonnes, with soyoil at 5,000 to 100,000 tonnes.
Brazilian exporter group ANEC raised its projection for the country’s December soybean exports by 330,000 tonnes at 1.57 million.
Following rains amounting to eight to 12 inches over the last few days, there have been reports of flooding primarily along South America’s Parana River.
The World Meteorological Organization said there’s more than a 50 per cent chance of a La Nina developing over the coming three months, but the phenomenon would likely be weak and short-lived.
IKAR projected planted oilseed area in Russia could expand by one million hectares to 19 million in 2025/26 due to lower margins in wheat.
CORN futures was lower on Wednesday, unable to sustain the boost it got from yesterday’s USDA report.
Projections for U.S. corn export sales included 1.10 million to 1.90 million tonnes of current crop.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production for the week ended Dec. 6 averaged nearly 1.08 million barrels per day, up 5,000 BPD from the previous week. Ethanol stocks lost 400,000 barrels at 22.65 million.
ANEC added 370,000 tonnes to its call on Brazil’s corn exports for December, at 3.96 million.
WHEAT futures closed narrowly mixed on Wednesday, caught up in the downward trend towards the end of the session.
U.S. wheat export sales are expected to be 275,000 to 600,000 tonnes.
The European Union said its year-to-date 2024/25 soft wheat exports are down 29 per cent at 10.24 million tonnes.
Japan tendered for 65,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 25,000 tonnes of feed barley. Thailand purchased 63,000 tonnes of feed wheat, while Jordan didn’t buy any milling wheat on its tender for 120,000 tonnes.
