Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm

North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola fails to hold on to gains

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures closed lower on Monday, after making gains for most of the session.

This was despite support from gains in the Chicago soy complex, as well as in the front months of European rapeseed. There were declines in rapeseed’s back months as well as in Malaysian palm oil. Good upticks in crude oil were supportive of the vegetable oil markets.

Above normal temperatures across the Prairies continued aid the rapid pace of the region’s harvest, which is near its end. Some rain was forecast for Alberta today and tomorrow, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba are to remain dry.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada agreed with Statistics Canada that this year’s harvest should be around 12.8 million tonnes. However, AAFC slashed its call on ending stocks by 75 per cent at 500,000 tonnes.

At mid-afternoon the Canadian dollar swung higher, putting pressure on canola values. The loonie was at 79.23 U.S. cents, compared to Friday’s close of 78.86.

There were 24,393 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 22,772 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 16,820 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 883.60 dn 4.30
Jan 875.70 dn 2.80
Mar 867.20 dn 3.10
May 850.50 dn 4.70

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were higher on Monday, with uncertainty over United States yields filtering into the markets.

The trade projects the harvest to be about 17 per cent complete in the weekly crop progress report out later this afternoon. Crop conditions are expected to be around 59 per cent good to excellent.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a private sale of 334,000 tonnes of soybeans to China. Delivery is to be during the current marketing year.

The USDA released its weekly export inspections report, showing soybean exports of 440,742 tonnes for the week ended Sept. 23. That’s a jump of 58.9 per cent compared to the previous week. The year-to-date shipments are 941,822 tonnes, tumbling 81.2 per cent from this time the previous year.

The department is scheduled to release its quarterly grain stocks and small grains reports on Sept. 30. The average trade prediction puts soybean stocks at 174 million bushels compared to the 525 million the USDA reported a year ago.

The trade continued to project a record Brazil soybean harvest of around 144 million tonnes, for a 5.8 per cent increase over 2020/21.

CORN futures were stronger on Monday, benefitting from strong upticks in the crude oil and heating oil markets.

The USDA said corn export inspections amounted to 517,539 tonnes, up 28.3 per cent from a week ago. The year-to-date shipments are about 1.14 million tonnes, down 59.6 per cent from a year ago.

As with soybeans, the corn harvest is projected to be 17 per cent complete and crop conditions approximately 59 per cent good to excellent.

The average trade guess for corn stocks on Thursday is 1.155 billion bushels versus the 1.919 billion the USDA said there were a year ago.

Parts of Brazil received rain over the weekend, while Argentina remains dry, with its corn planting nine per cent complete.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Monday, with small losses for Chicago and gains for Kansas City and Minneapolis.

Wheat export inspections totaled 286,087 tonnes and fell 49.3 per cent from the previous week. At slightly more than eight million tonnes, the year-to-date shipments are down 13.5 per cent from the previous year.

Market expectations for total wheat stocks averages 1.852 billion bushels. Last year the USDA reported 2.158 billion.

Ukraine reports its wheat harvest was complete, with 60 per cent of the crop considered to be of milling quality.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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