North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola falls back amid pressure
All red in Chicago
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed lower on Thursday, due to sharp declines in the Chicago soy complex and more moderate losses in European rapeseed.
However, gains in Malaysian palm oil and global crude oil helped to limit the pull backs in canola.
Rail movement is mostly at a standstill across the country as 9,300 locomotive engineers, conductors and yard workers have been locked out by Canadian National Railways and Canadian Pacific Kansas City. Negotiations with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference ended shortly after midnight Thursday morning. Estimates placed the loss to the Canadian economy at about C$1 billion per day.
A trader said the path canola will take with the work stoppage will be determined by either pressure from domestic buyers or heightened demand from export customers.
Saskatchewan reported its overall harvest is 15 per cent complete, the province’s canola was two per cent in the bin.
The Canadian dollar stepped back mid-afternoon Thursday with the loonie at 73.48 U.S. cents compared to Wednesday’s close of 73.57.
There were 32,504 contracts traded on Thursday, compared to the 35,100 contracts that changed hands on Wednesday. Spreading accounted for 15,456 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 565.50 dn 12.10 Jan 578.00 dn 11.30 Mar 587.20 dn 11.20 May 593.70 dn 11.40
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Thursday on the prospect of a hefty soybean harvest.
Day Three of the Pro Farmer crop tour found soybean pod counts in Illinois to be 1,419.1, surpassing last year’s 1,270.6 and the three-year average of 1,266.70.
The United States Department of Agriculture reported a sale for 198,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans to China and a sale for 105,000 tonnes of new crop soymeal to Vietnam.
The USDA issued it export sales report for the week ended Aug. 15, showing a net reduction of 43,700 tonnes for old crop soybeans and well below market expectations. Meanwhile new crop soybeans had sales of nearly 1.68 million tonnes, exceeding trade guesses.
Old crop soymeal also incurred a net sale reduction of 20,100 tonnes and short of market predictions. New crop came in at 136,400 tonnes, nearly the low end of projections. Soyoil had sales of 10,500 tonnes of old crop and 100 tonnes of new crop, within trade forecasts.
Indonesia is set to enact a mandatory biodiesel blend of 40 per cent palm oil effective Jan. 1, up five points from the current blend. The measure should see palm oil for biodiesel rise to 13.9 million tonnes from 11.0 million.
While Ukraine officially harvested 12.8 million tonnes of sunflower seeds, when unaccounted for sunflowers are factored in, production is believed to be 1.5 to two million tonnes more.
CORN futures were lower on Thursday, in sympathy with soybeans.
Illinois corn yields were estimated to be 204.1 bushels per acre, above last year’s 193.7 and the average of 193.6. Day Four the crop tour goes through Iowa and southern Minnesota.
The USDA reported a sale of 132,000 tonnes of new crop corn to unknown destinations and one for 110,490 tonnes of new crop corn to Mexico.
U.S. export sales came to 119,100 tonnes of old crop and 1.29 million tonnes of new crop. While the old crop was within trade expectations, the new crop came in above them.
WHEAT futures were down on Thursday, catching spillover from soybeans and corn.
The USDA reported weekly exports sale of 492,700 tonnes of wheat, near the high end of guesses.
The quality of the French soft wheat crop has diminished with only 30 per cent of the harvest having reached 76 kilograms per hectoliter compared to the average of 76 per cent. Also 78 per cent of the crop had a protein content above 11 per cent versus the average of 85 per cent.
The German 2024 winter wheat crop was estimated to be 18.03 million tonnes, down 15 per cent from the previous year, according to DBV, a farm co-operative association.
Japan bought 53,562 tonnes of U.S. wheat and 27,880 tonnes of Canadian wheat.
