North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola front months nudge up
U.S. soybeans, corn, wheat drop back
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures were slightly higher in the front months on Friday while the deferred positions were lower.
Canola received support from slight increases in Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil. However, declines in Chicago soybeans and soymeal, plus those in European rapeseed limited the gains.
Canola exports and domestic use remains strong. The Canadian Grain Commission reported for the week ended Jan. 19 that year-to-date exports hit 5.13 million tonnes, jumping nearly 91 per cent from a year ago. Domestic use hit 5.55 million tonnes, up almost 12 per cent.
An analyst suggested there’s likely only one hope for Canadian canola oil exports to the United States due to the recent changes to the Section 45Z biofuel tax credit. That the Trump administration reverses the changes, which would reinstate canola. However, the new administration is reportedly unfriendly towards biofuels and could eliminate the tax credit altogether.
The Canadian dollar was higher on Friday afternoon with the loonie at 69.72 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 69.58.
There were 48,866 contracts traded on Friday, compared to 51,075 on Thursday. Spreading accounted for 27,698 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Mar 638.70 up 1.30 May 647.60 up 1.40 Jul 651.90 dn 0.20 Nov 637.00 dn 2.10
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were lower due to tax changes in Argentina.
The Argentine government said it will drop its export tax on soybeans from 33 per cent to 26 per cent, with that for soymeal reduced from 31 per cent to 24.5 per cent. The cuts will be in place from Jan. 27 to June 30.
The United States Department of Agriculture issued its export sales report, delayed by Monday’s holiday. For the week ended Jan. 16 export sales of U.S. soybeans came to 1.49 million tonnes of old crop, and those for soymeal were 208,700 tonnes and soyoil tallied 2,900 tonnes. While soybeans and soymeal were within trade expectations, soyoil fell well short of the 10,000 to 60,000 tonnes predicted.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut one million tonnes from its call on Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean harvest, now at 49.6 million tonnes.
CORN futures were lower on Friday in sympathy with soybeans.
The Argentine government said it will lower its corn export tax from 12 per cent down to 9.5 per cent.
Export sales of U.S. corn were 1.66 million tonnes of old crop, which were near the high end of market guesses.
The BAGE chopped one million tonnes from its estimate for Argentina’s 2024/25 corn crop, now at 49 million tonnes.
The USDA attaché in Mexico City trimmed their outlook on the Mexican 2024/25 corn crop to 23.30 million tonnes, kept imports at 25 million and lowered ending stocks to 4.01 million.
WHEAT futures were lower on Friday, due to weak export sales.
The USDA reported wheat export sales were 164,800 tonnes of old crop and below trade estimates.
The USDA’s Mexico City desk nudged up 2024/25 wheat production in Mexico to 2.64 million tonnes and left imports at 5.80 million and pushed up ending stocks to 1.25 million. The latter being almost 46 per cent more than the official estimate.
The Canadian Grain Commission reported year-to-date wheat exports for the week ended Jan. 12 of 9.70 million tonnes are slightly behind those a year ago. Year-to-date durum exports remained well ahead of last year at 2.55 million tonnes.
The Argentine government said it will reduce its wheat export tax from 12 per cent to 9.5.
