North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola hangs on to modest increases
CBOT soybeans stronger, supporting corn
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed modestly higher on Friday, partially recovering losses incurred yesterday with all contracts finishing the week above C$600 per tonne.
Canola faced a fair amount pressure from declines in Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. However, enough support was derived from strong increases in Chicago soybeans and soymeal. Also, upticks in crude oil spilled over into the oilseeds.
A trader said the oilseed market, including canola was “a jumble” surrounded by uncertainty. For canola he noted that included China’s investigations into alleged canola dumping by Canada, the grain workers’ strike at Vancouver, and lingering questions about the size of the Prairie canola harvest. The trader acknowledged that ending stocks for the Canadian oilseed will likely be much higher than anticipated.
The Canadian Grain Commission reported canola exports following Week 7 of the 2024/25 marketing year are almost 3.5 times more than the same last year at 1.68 million tonnes compared to 492,500.
By mid-afternoon Friday, the Canadian dollar fell to 74.00 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 74.22.
There were 53,768 contracts traded on Friday, compared to 68,026 on Thursday. Spreading accounted for 35,212 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 603.80 up 2.90 Jan 616.30 up 2.60 Mar 627.00 up 2.70 May 634.00 up 2.60
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Friday along with sharp gains in soymeal but declines in soyoil.
Hurricane Helene struck the United States southeast, generating a large storm surge along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico plus very heavy rains further inland causing severe flooding. While Helene’s wrath will delay soybean and corn combining in the region, the rain will boost water levels on the Mississippi River.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a private sale for 20,000 tonnes of 2024/25 soyoil to South Korea.
The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly grain stocks report on Monday. The average trade guess placed U.S. soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 at 351 million bushels, up 11 million from a year ago.
U.S. agriculture groups have been pushing the Biden administration to resolve any labour dispute between east coast and Gulf of Mexico port workers and their employers. The workers will be in a strike position as of Oct. 1.
CORN futures were higher Friday, catching spillover from soybeans.
U.S. corn stocks are projected to be 1.84 billion bushels, adding 300 million from the same time last year.
Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry estimated the country’s 2024/25 corn crop at 25.80 million tonnes, down from the previous year’s 27.20 million. The country’s corn exports so far into 2024/25 reached 2.70 million tonnes.
South Africa cut its 2024/25 corn production to 12.80 million tonnes, down 22 per cent from last year, with slightly more yellow corn than white.
Reports said Algeria bought 240,000 tonnes of corn from either Argentina or Brazil.
WHEAT futures were lower Friday ahead of the stocks report.
Wheat stocks in the U.S. are expected to be 1.97 billion bushels, adding 200 million from last September.
FranceAgriMer reported the country’s incoming soft wheat crop at one per cent planted as of Sept. 23.
The European Union forecast its 2024/25 wheat output at 114.60 million tonnes, down 1.50 million from the August estimate. Ending stocks were reduced by 800,000 tonnes at 11.70 million.
Ukraine placed its 2024/25 wheat crop at 21.80 million tonnes. Its wheat exports at this point in the marketing year came to 5.80 million tonnes.
