North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola recovers losses, adds more
U.S. soybeans, corn rise as wheat declines
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed stronger on Wednesday, recouping yesterday’s losses and adding more.
A trader said he wasn’t entirely sure as to why canola climbed so high, suggesting it could have been a rebalancing of the market or the speculative funds at work. Given how hard the Canadian oilseed fell on Tuesday, he said he wasn’t surprised at its turnaround today.
Support for canola came from upticks in the Chicago soy complex, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Crude oil forfeited its earlier increases, with its losses tempering further gains in the oilseeds.
The trader said the labour dispute at Canada’s two largest railways could see canola go either way. Domestic pressure could pull prices down, but export demand could drive them up.
Federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon is meeting with both railways and the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference in a last-ditch effort to stave off a work stoppage at midnight.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada issued its August supply and demand report, with 130,000 tonnes added to canola ending stocks at 2.23 million.
This time next week, Statistics Canada will release its model-based report on the country’s principal field crops. The trader stated there’s little confidence in the market towards such reports.
The Canadian dollar was stronger by mid-afternoon Wednesday with the loonie at 73.62 U.S. cents compared to Tuesday’s close of 73.38.
There were 35,100 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to the 41,707 contracts that changed hands on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 18,918 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change
Canola Nov 577.60 up 12.50
Jan 589.30 up 12.90
Mar 598.40 up 12.90
May 605.10 up 13.10
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Wednesday, bouncing back from yesterday’s losses.
Day Two of the Pro Farmer crop tour estimated soybean pod counts in Indiana at their highest in 22 years, at 1,409.02 per three-by-three-foot square. Last year, the count was 1,309.96 and the three-average is 1,238.55. The Nebraska soybean pod count came in at 1,172.48, a pinch higher than last year’s 1,160.02 and better than the average of 1,150.06.
The United States Department of Agriculture announced two more private sales of new crop soybeans. One is for 132,000 tonnes to China and the other is for 121,000 tonnes to unknown destinations.
Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA export sales report, the trade pegged old crop soybean sales at 100,000 to 400,000 tonnes and new crop sales at 800,000 to 1.35 million tonnes. Soymeal sales are to be 100,000 to 550,000 tonnes and soyoil is to be between zero to 20,000 tonnes.
Brazil export group ANEC placed its estimate of the country’s August soybean exports at 8.16 million tonnes.
CORN futures were a pinch higher on Wednesday, caught between upticks in soybeans and losses in wheat.
The PF tour estimated Indiana corn yields at 187.54 bushels per acres, up from 180.89 last year and the three-year average of 184.07. The Nebraska leg calculated corn yields at 173.25 bu./ac. versus 167.22 last year and the average of 169.37.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production for the week ended Aug. 16 averaged just under 1.10 million barrels per day, up 26,000 BPD. Ethanol stocks increased by 220,000 barrels at 23.57 million.
Guesses for export sales placed old crop corn at 100,000 to 300,000 tonnes with new crop at 500,000 to 1.03 million tonnes.
ANEC projected Brazil August corn exports of 6.53 million tonnes, up 304,810 tonnes from the group’s previous estimate.
At 15.57 million acres, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projected at 17 per cent drop in Argentina corn area in 2024/25 compared to the previous year.
WHEAT futures were lower on Wednesday, getting pressure from declines in European wheat.
An analyst noted that despite the smaller wheat crop in the European Union, its quality is poor enough that many buyers aren’t interested in buying it.
Export sales of U.S. wheat were estimated to be 250,000 to 500,000 tonnes.
The Ukrainian government proposed an export limit of 16.2 million tonnes of wheat for 2024/25.
