North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola rises on faded increases
Improvements all around in Chicago
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed mostly higher on Monday but faded from much stronger increases earlier in the session.
The November contract eased back despite poking its head above C$600 per tonne during trading, which is its 50-day moving average. An analyst commented that amounts to a “technical failure.” The November managed to edge ahead of its 20-day average.
Modest losses in crude oil took support away from the vegetable oils. Although the Chicago soy complex was stronger on the day, increases in soyoil saw their gains cut in about half. There were double-digit advances in European rapeseed and modest upticks in Malaysian palm oil that underpinned canola.
The Canadian dollar was higher by mid-afternoon Monday with the loonie rising to 74.09 U.S. cents compared to Friday’s close of 73.72.
There were 59,646 contracts traded on Monday, compared to 47,577 on Friday. Spreading accounted for 36,192 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 587.30 dn 1.60 Jan 600.70 up 1.60 Mar 612.70 up 3.20 May 621.10 up 3.20
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Monday as unfavourable conditions in Brazil and Argentina provided support.
The United States Department of Agriculture announced a flash sale of 165,000 tonnes of current crop soybeans to unknown destinations.
The USDA released its export inspections report for the week ended Sept. 19, showing soybean exports of 485,218 tonnes, up 2.5 per cent from the previous week. Trade guesses were for 350,000 to 650,000 tonnes. At 1.23 million tonnes the year-to-date lagged behind the 1.31 million tonnes the same time last year.
AgRural estimated the 2024/25 Brazil soybean crop at 0.9 per cent complete, lower than its average pace of 1.9 per cent. Meanwhile, Safras and Mercado pegged the crop at 0.5 per cent planted, about a third of its average. The consultancy forecast the country’s soybean production at a record 171.78 million tonnes, despite dryness issues in parts of Brazil.
The India Meteorological Department reported that the country’s monsoon rains began retreating about a week earlier than expected. However, the IMD said this year’s monsoons brought 5.5 per cent more rain than normal.
Palm oil refiners in India cancelled about 100,000 tonnes of purchases following the government’s hike in palm oil import duties. The cancellations equal about 13 per cent of India’s September imports.
CORN futures were higher on Monday, gleaning spillover from wheat and soybeans.
The USDA said corn inspections tallied 1.10 million tonnes, almost doubling from a week ago, while exceeding market expectations of 475,000 to 900,000 tonnes. The year-to-date of 2.14 million tonnes is slightly ahead of last year’s 2.02 million.
AgRural placed corn planting in Brazil at 26 per cent done.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated 2024/25 corn planting in Argentina at just over seven per cent complete.
WHEAT futures were stronger on Monday with double-digit increase for Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis.
U.S. wheat exports improved almost 21 per cent at 711,073 tonnes, surpassing trade predictions of 400,000 to 650,000 tonnes. The year-to-date of 7.68 million tonnes is more than two million ahead of last year.
The Ukrainian ag ministry said it plans to increase its call on winter wheat planted area, on the assumption of rain in October. Earlier this month, the ministry reduced its call to 11.12 million acres of winter wheat, as seeding has been slower than usual due to dry conditions.
Altai became the fifth Russian region to declare a state of emergency over crop damage caused by extreme weather. Altai’s grain and legume production in 2023 was around five million tonnes. The other regions are Tomsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo, and Krasnoyarsk.
