North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola starts 2025 on the right foot
A mixed day in Chicago
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed higher on Thursday, on the first day of trading for 2025. The markets in Canada and the United States were closed yesterday for New Year’s.
Support for canola came from gains in Chicago soybeans and soymeal plus strong increases in European rapeseed. However, there were declines in Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil that limited the upside in the Canadian oilseed. Upticks in crude oil were a little softer than earlier, which saw soyoil give up earlier gains.
An analyst noted there’s currently little to no bullish new news for the soy complex, which means it will put pressure on canola.
The March canola contract closed above its 20-day and 100-day moving averages.
The Canadian dollar eased back by mid-session Thursday, with the loonie at 69.40 U.S. cents compared to Tuesday’s close of 69.50.
There were 27,146 contracts traded on Thursday, compared to 18,557 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 8,720 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Mar 625.00 up 9.10 May 632.50 up 8.60 Jul 634.80 up 8.50 Nov 611.40 up 6.30
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were slightly higher on Thursday, supported by gains in soymeal but those were tempered by small losses in soyoil.
The United States Department of Agriculture fats and oils report showed 210 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in November, compared to the average trade estimate of 207.2 million bushels. Soyoil stocks were 1.78 billion pounds.
The USDA postponed its export sales report to Friday, with the trade expecting sale of 500,000 to 1.20 million tonnes. Soymeal export sales are projected to be 150,000 to 400,000 tonnes and those for soyoil at 5,000 to 40,000 tonnes.
Uncertainty over incoming President Donald Trump’s policies on agriculture and biofuel production continued a cautious tone in the market.
Consultancy StoneX upped its call on the 2024/25 Brazil soybean crop by 5.20 million tonnes at 171.40 million and upped its projection on exports by four million tonnes at 107 million.
The Argentina chamber of oilseed and grain crushers reported farm exports added nearly US$2 billion to the country’s economy in December, up 58 per cent from a year ago.
CORN futures were up slightly on Thursday, riding strong support in crude oil while fending off pressure from soybeans and wheat.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production for the week ended Dec. 27 averaged 1.11 million barrels per day, up 4,000 BPD from the previous week. Ethanol stocks expanded by 565,000 barrels at 23.64 million.
Export sales of U.S. corn are expected to be 800,000 to 1.40 million tonnes.
StoneX added 300,000 tonnes to is forecast on the 2024/25 Brazil corn crop now at 128.60 million.
WHEAT futures were lower due to a sharp hike in the U.S. dollar on Thursday.
While colder weather is coming for the U.S. Midwest, the forecast projected snow, which should help protect the winter wheat.
The trade placed U.S. wheat export sales at 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes.
Egypt said it’s purchased enough wheat to last to the end of June.
