North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola takes a hit
U.S. grains, oilseeds mixed at the close
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed weaker on Tuesday in very heavy volumes of trade but stepped away from larger losses earlier in the session.
United States President-elect Donald Trump stated Monday that he will impose 25 per cent tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico effective Jan. 20, which sent canola futures reeling.
An analyst remarked the trade had a “knee-jerk, bearish reaction” to Trump’s comments, which he said are likely a negotiating ploy. The analyst added canola will regain lost ground as “calmer head prevail.”
Losses in Chicago soybeans and soymeal, as well as European rapeseed put additional pressure on canola. However, increases in Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil tempered further declines. Crude oil turned around with small decreases weighing on vegetable oil values.
At mid-afternoon Tuesday the Canadian dollar dropped to 71.07 U.S. cents compared to Monday’s close of 71.53.
There were 124,512 contracts traded on Tuesday, compared to 47,884 on Monday. Spreading accounted for 81,374 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Jan 580.30 dn 12.70 Mar 594.20 dn 11.70 May 605.50 dn 9.10 Jul 610.00 dn 7.40
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were mixed on Tuesday, with losses in the front months.
United States President-elect Donald Trump stated on Monday that his administration is set to impose 25 per cent tariffs on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, and an added 10 per cent tariff on those from China.
The latter would likely curb used cooking oil imports from China, which bolstered soyoil futures.
Reuters reported that U.S. soybean exports from Gulf Coast terminals hit four year highs as water levels on the Mississippi River improved.
Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier added two million tonnes to his call on Brazil soybean production, bringing it to 168 million tonnes. He kept his outlook on Argentina soybean output at 57 million tonnes.
Rapeseed prices in Australia and the European Union have risen 20 per cent since March due to tightening supplies.
Ukraine said its soybean harvest hit a record six million tonnes in 2024, while its rapeseed harvest fell almost 19 per cent from the year before at 3.45 million tonnes.
CORN futures were lower on Tuesday, also in response to Trump’s tariff rhetoric.
Cordonnier held his projections for corn production in Brazil and Argentina at 125 million and 48 million tonnes respectively.
South Korea bought 198,000 tonnes of corn.
South Africa said it will import corn from the U.S. as a drought cut the country’s production by 22 per cent. South Africa is often among the top 10 corn-growing countries in the world.
WHEAT futures settled higher on Tuesday, although trading was choppy.
The planting of U.S. winter wheat was almost complete at 97 per cent seeded as of Nov. 24, up three points on the week and virtually on par with the five-year average. The crop rated 55 per cent good to excellent, up six points.
The European Union said its wheat exports so far in 2024/25 are 9.15 million tonnes, down 30 per cent from a year ago.
