North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola takes hard hit
U.S. soybeans, corn wheat in the red
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed weaker on Monday, as concerns over United States tariffs ramped up.
An analyst said that if the Trump administration were to impose their tariffs effective Mar. 4, and if Canada retaliates that any benefit canola is getting from its tight supplies would evaporate. However, he stressed there is simply so much political uncertainty that no known truly knows what will happen next week.
Meanwhile, canola took a hit from weakness in the Chicago soy complex, Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed. Modest upticks in crude oil lent some measure of support to the vegetable oils.
While May canola slid below its 20-day moving average it remained above its over major averages.
The Canadian dollar stepped back Monday afternoon, with the loonie at 70.30 U.S. cents compared to Friday’s close of 70.39.
There were 55,697 contracts traded on Monday, compared to 56,032 on Friday. Spreading accounted for 35,380 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Mar 647.90 dn 19.90 May 659.30 dn 20.40 Jul 665.10 dn 21.20 Nov 649.90 dn 17.10
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were lower on Monday, due to the uncertainty generated by the Trump administration’s tariff threats. Come Mar. 4 United States President Donald Trump said he would impose 25 per cent tariffs on all goods the U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued its export inspections report for the week ended Feb. 20 with soybeans improving to 858,679 tonnes. The year-to-date reached 36.88 million tonnes compared to 33.14 million a year ago.
Ahead of the USDA’s outlook forum later this week, a Bloomberg survey estimated U.S planted soybean acres at 84.40 million for 2025/26, down 2.70 million from last year’s seedings.
While the six to 10-day forecast by the GFS model called for rain for northern Argentina with drier conditions in southern Argentina and central Brazil, the Euro model for the same period predicted more rain for Argentina, but Brazil becoming drier in its north and south.
AgRural reduced its estimate on the Brazil soybean harvest by 2.80 million tonnes, now at 168.20 million. The consultancy pegged the harvest at 39 per cent complete as of Feb. 20.
CORN futures pulled back on Monday, in concert with soybeans.
Export inspections of U.S. corn slipped to 1.13 million tonnes, but the year-to-date of 25.87 million tonnes remained well ahead of 19.55 million this time last year.
The Bloomberg survey estimated U.S. corn plantings for the coming year at 93.50 million, up from last year’s 90.6 million sown.
AgRural placed the planting of Brazil’s second corn crop at 64 per cent finished and the harvest of the first crop at 39 per cent done.
WHEAT futures were weaker on Monday, due to spillover from soybeans and corn.
U.S. wheat export inspections tallied 375,546 tonnes, up from last week. The year-to-date reached 15.22 million tonnes versus 12.61 million a year ago.
Bloomberg reported the average estimate for total 2025/26 U.S. wheat plantings at 46.7 million acres, slightly more than the 46.10 million seeded last year.
