North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola takes opportunity to increase
USDA export sales report out Friday
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed higher on Thursday amid lighter activity.
Support for canola came from gains in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Slight upticks in crude oil lent some spillover to the vegetable oils.
Thursday’s increases in canola were tempered by the ongoing threat of tariffs from the incoming Trump administration and the uncertainty in the U.S. biofuel industry regarding its tax credits.
Ahead of next Thursday’s production report from Statistics Canada, the trade sees the country’s canola harvest at 17 million to 18.50 million tonnes. StatCan’s September estimate placed canola production at 18.98 million tonnes.
With the domestic crush working at capacity and very strong export sales, a smaller canola crop would result in tighter supplies. In turn, that could lead to price rationing by spring.
By mid-afternoon Thursday the Canadian dollar rose to 71.38 U.S. cents compared to Wednesday’s close of 71.25.
There were 24,431 contracts traded on Thursday, compared to 67,195 on Wednesday. Spreading accounted for 15,308 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Jan 571.30 up 6.70 Mar 584.50 up 5.40 May 596.00 up 4.60 Jul 599.90 up 3.30
The United States markets were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Trading at the Chicago Board of Trade is set to resume Friday at 8:30 am CST, with the close moved up to 12:05 pm. Also, first notice day for December futures is Friday.
With the holiday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture postponed its export sales report to Friday. The trade projected soybean export sales to be 1.5 million to 2.4 million tonnes. Soymeal was forecast at 150,000 to 500,000 tonnes and soyoil at 25,000 to 50,000 tonnes.
Projections for U.S. corn export sales are 800,000 to two million tonnes and those for wheat are pegged at 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes.
The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly crush report on Monday. The average trade guess placed the October crush at nearly 211 million bushels of soybeans and forecast soyoil stocks at 1.52 billion pounds.
Reports out Brazil said water levels on the Amazon River system are returning to normal. That’s increased barge traffic which has helped to boost the country’s soybean exports.
SovEcon cut its call on 2024/25 Russian wheat exports by 1.8 million tonnes, now at 44.1 million.
Jordan issued a tender for 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat and didn’t receive offers on its request for 120,000 tonnes of feed barley.
Tunisia acquired 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 100,000 tonnes of durum.
Algeria bought up to 150,000 tonnes of milling wheat and up to 240,000 tonnes of feed corn.
