North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola weakens as China implements tariffs
U.S. soybeans, corn higher, wheat pulls back
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures turned weaker on Thursday due to pressure from China’s 100 per cent tariffs on imports of Canadian canola meal and oil.
Canola was recovering this week from sharp losses incurred after China announced its plans for its levies. China took the action in response to Canada, along with the United States and European Union, imposing 100 per cent tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
The losses in the Canadian oilseed were stemmed by gains in Chicago soybeans and soyoil along with most Malaysian palm oil contracts. European rapeseed was mixed and Chicago soymeal eased back. Strength in crude oil lent support to the vegetable oils.
As well, canola’s losses were tempered by increased end-user buying as the oilseed remained relatively cheap compared to other veg oils.
The Canadian dollar was virtually unchanged on Thursday afternoon with the loonie at 69.78 U.S. cents.
There were 55,663 contracts traded on Thursday, compared to 66,747 on Wednesday. Spreading accounted for 32,632 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola May 572.70 dn 11.50 Jul 584.20 dn 10.30 Nov 588.80 dn 9.70 Jan 595.70 dn 10.30
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade turned higher on Thursday due to spillover from gains in crude oil.
For the week ended March 13, the United States Department of Agriculture export sales of soybeans came to 352,600 tonnes of old crop, a little short of market expectations. Meanwhile, old crop soymeal and soyoil were within trade guesses at 182,200 and 34,200 tonnes, respectively.
In another tariff move by U.S. President Donald Trump, he said he wants to levy China-linked vessels up to US$1.5 million when docking at U.S. ports. Trump claimed the measure would revive the country’s ship building industry, but the agriculture and energy sectors expressed their grave concerns the surcharge would limit their exports.
Argentina is expected to be wetter by early next week, with limited chances for more rain after that. Brazil is to get some precipitation this week and then turning drier the following week.
The USDA attaché in Beijing forecast China’s 2025/26 soybean crop at 9.90 million tonnes compared to 10.33 million this year. China’s rapeseed production is to be virtually unchanged from 2024/25 at 15.90 million tonnes.
In the monthly supply and demand report from the International Grains Council, 2025/26 global soybean production is to increase by 9.80 million tonnes at 427.50 million tonnes, and the carryover is to nudge up 1.30 million tonnes at 83.20 million.
CORN futures were higher Thursday due to strong exports.
Old crop U.S. corn came within the range of market projections at nearly 1.50 million tonnes.
The IGC raised 2025/26 world corn production by 52.20 million tonnes at 1.27 billion, while ending stock rose six million tonnes at 280.40 million.
WHEAT futures were lower on Thursday on poor old crop sales.
There was sharp net reduction in export sales of old crop U.S. wheat at 248,800 tonnes. However, new crop wheat far exceeded guesses at 491,100 tonnes.
The U.S. weather outlook called for dryness over the Northern Plains and particularly in the Southwest Plains. Most of the Midwest is to get showers during the next 10 days.
Allendale’s producer survey placed total U.S. wheat plantings for 2025/26 at 45.86 million acres.
The IGC said world wheat output is expected to improve eight million tonnes at 806.70 million, while ending stocks lose six million tonnes at 259.10 million.
