North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola’s rally keeps going
CBOT futures in red following S/D report
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures rallied for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday.
Support came from the tightening canola supply situation in Canada as exports and domestic use remain strong.
Gains in Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed spilled over into canola, but those increases were tempered by losses in Chicago soybeans and soymeal. Crude oil was on the upswing, lending support to the vegetable oils.
The United States Department of Agriculture kept its estimate on Canadian canola production for 2024/25 at 18.80 million tonnes. In December, Statistics Canada pegged the oilseed’s harvest at 17.85 million tonnes.
An analyst warned that a downward correction in canola futures could soon hit.
The Canadian dollar was higher on Tuesday afternoon with the loonie at 69.98 U.S. cents compared to Monday’s close of 69.82.
There were 72,913 contracts traded on Tuesday, compared to 75,660 on Monday. Spreading accounted for 53,098 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Mar 664.60 up 2.80 May 675.10 up 3.40 Jul 679.10 up 2.80 Nov 654.40 up 2.90
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower on Tuesday after pushing upward for most of the session.
The United States Department of Agriculture released its February supply and demand estimates, with soybean ending stocks for 2024/25 remaining at 380 million bushels, versus the trade guess of 374 million bushels based on a range from 340 million to 405 million bushels. As well for the current marketing year, soyoil ending stocks held at 1.53 million pounds and those for soymeal stay at 450,000 short tons.
The USDA cut three million tonnes from its 2024/25 estimate on Argentina soybeans, now at 49 million, and kept Brazil at 169 million.
CORN futures turned around on Tuesday after the release of the supply and demand estimates.
U.S. corn ending stocks were unchanged at 1.54 billion bushels compared the average trade guess of 1.53 billion bushels from a range of 1.47 billion to 1.59 billion bushels.
The USDA trimmed one million tonnes off of its 2024/25 corn estimates for Argentina and Brazil at 50 million and 126 million tonnes, respectively.
WHEAT futures were lower on Tuesday, in sympathy with soybeans and corn.
U.S. wheat ending stocks were pegged at 794 million bushels versus the average trade estimate of 799 million based on guesses from 785 million to 823 million bushels.
The Texas crop report listed its winter wheat at 36 per cent good to excellent, a dip of one point from last week.
France’s agriculture ministry raised its estimate on 2025/26 planted wheat acres to 11.3 million, up 1.3 per cent from its previous estimate and 10 per cent more than 2024/25.
