North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Choppy trading ends canola rally
More gains for Chicago soybeans, corn
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures finished narrowly mixed on Wednesday, as choppy trading pushed the oilseed to either side of unchanged.
That brought to a halt the latest rally in canola, but a trader said buyers remain eager to purchase it. He said they are concerned that Canada’s canola crop could be below the nearly 19.0 million tonnes estimated by Statistics Canada. The federal agency releases its next production report in December.
He added that ICE canola futures will continue to benefit from buying by China, ahead of any sanctions its government will very likely levy sometime in the months to come.
Another round of sharp spikes in Malaysian palm oil lent support to canola, as did Chicago soybeans. However any increases were tempered by declines in Chicago soyoil and soymeal, as well as European rapeseed. Losses in crude oil also put pressure on the vegetable oils.
The January canola contract extended its rise above all of its major moving averages. Meanwhile, canola crush margins nudged up a little with the January position at more than C$101 per tonne above the futures.
The Canadian dollar slipped to 72.26 U.S. cents on Wednesday, compared to Tuesday’s close of 72.33.
There were 63,603 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 65,242 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 35,394 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 632.20 dn 0.50 Jan 645.80 up 1.30 Mar 656.20 up 0.90 May 662.00 dn 0.30
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Wednesday, continuing to benefit from good export sales.
The United States Department of Agriculture announced a pair of private sales of current crop soybeans with 259,000 tonnes to unknown destinations and 130,000 tonnes to China.
Ahead of Thursday’s USDA export sales report, the trade pegs soybeans at 1.2 million to 2.4 million tonnes of current crop plus zero to 100,000 tonnes of new crop. Soymeal export sales are expected to be 150,000 tonnes to 400,000 tonnes and soyoil at zero to 50,000 tonnes.
The one-to-five-day weather outlook for northern Brazil has called for rain. Also for southern Argentina, the 11-to-15-day outlook included rain.
Brazil exporter group ANEC projected the country’s October soybean exports at 4.63 million tonnes, down from 5.53 million a year ago.
CORN futures were higher on Wednesday, rising on export sales and domestic use.
The USDA said there’s a flash sale of 100,000 tonnes of current crop corn to unknown destinations.
Market expectations for corn export sales are 2.2 million to 3.3 million tonnes of current crop and 500,000 to 800,000 tonnes of new crop.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration announced ethanol production for the week ended Oct. 23 average 1.08 million barrels per day, up 39,000 BPD, exceeding trade guesses of production being down 2,000 to up 13,000 BPD. Ethanol stocks retreated 52,000 barrels at 22.22 million and within predictions of down 200,000 barrels to up 100,000.
ANEC estimated Brazil’s October corn exports to be 6.24 million tonnes compared to 8.45 million the previous October.
WHEAT futures ended mixed on Wednesday, with declines for Minneapolis and Kansas while Chicago nudged up.
Sales of U.S. wheat are expected to be 350,000 to 650,000 tonnes of current crop plus zero to 50,000 tonnes of new crop.
The weather forecast for the U.S. Southern Plains has called for rain by the weekend and then turning dry after that.
Reports said the six-to-10-day forecast for southern Russia is for rain.
