North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Dwindling supplies underpin increases
U.S. soybeans, wheat pull back
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed higher on Monday due to tighter supplies.
Statistics Canada reported canola stocks at the end of 2024 were about 19 per cent smaller than those the year before. Also, the Canadian Grain Commission said canola exports and domestic use remain strong.
Additional support for canola came from gains in Malaysian palm oil and most European rapeseed contracts. However, declines in the Chicago soy complex limited the gains in canola. Stronger crude oil prices spilled over into the vegetable oils.
The March canola contract pushed further above its major moving averages, with it now C$23.52 per tonne over the 200-day average.
The United States Department of Agriculture is set to release its supply and demand estimates on Tuesday, with canola likely to take direction from any changes to soybeans.
The Canadian dollar dipped on Monday afternoon with the loonie at 69.89 U.S. cents compared to Friday’s close of 69.94.
There were 75,660 contracts traded on Monday, compared to 67,509 on Friday. Spreading accounted for 52,728 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Mar 661.80 up 5.00 May 671.70 up 7.20 Jul 676.30 up 7.20 Nov 651.50 up 4.40
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were steady to lower on Monday due to positioning ahead of Tuesday’s supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture.
Average trade guesses ahead of the report trimmed domestic 2024/25 soybean ending stocks from January’s 380 million bushels to 374 million. Global soybean ending stocks are expected to pull back to 127.79 million tonnes from 128.37 million.
The trade predicts the USDA will slot soybean production in Argentina at 50.49 million tonnes, down from last month’s 52 million. That for Brazil is to nudge up to 169.64 million tonnes from 169 million.
Safras & Mercado raised their estimate on Brazil soybean production by 1.17 million tonnes, now at 174.88 million.
Weekly export inspections report for the week ended Feb. 6, showing soybeans at 1.04 million tonnes, down from the previous week. The year-to-date climbed to 35.23 million tonnes versus 30.78 million the same time last year.
AgRural placed the Brazil soybean harvest at 15 per cent complete as of Feb. 6, down eight points from the same time last year.
The Brazil agriculture ministry said January soybean exports came to 1.07 million tonnes, down 62.4 per cent from a year ago.
Malaysian palm oil stocks fall to a 21-month low as flooding stymied production last month by almost 17 per cent.
CORN futures were higher on Monday, due to expectations of tighter ending stocks.
The trade pegged the U.S. corn carryover at 1.53 billion bushels, a dip from January’s 1.54 billion. World ending stocks are to slip to 292.52 million tonnes from 293.34 million.
Export inspections improved to 1.33 million tonnes, and the year-to-date reached 23.09 million tonnes compared to 17.21 million tonnes a year ago.
The USDA announced a flash sale for 365,000 tonnes of old crop corn to Mexico.
Argentine corn output is projected to be 49.50 million tonnes compared to 51 million in January. Brazil’s corn harvests are to total 126.74 million tonnes versus 127 million last month.
Brazil corn exports for January were pegged at 3.59 million tonnes by the country’s ag ministry, falling 25.2 per cent from the same time last year.
AgRural put the first corn harvest in Brazil at 18 per cent complete, with the second crop at 20 per cent planted.
WHEAT futures were lower on Monday, as domestic wheat ending stocks are expected to change very little.
That carryout was pegged at 799 million bushels, up one million from January’s estimate. The world carryout is projected to ease back to 258.60 million tonnes from 258.82 million.
Export inspections of U.S. wheat tallied 536,217 tonnes were more than doubled from last week. The year-to-date rose to 14.56 million tonnes, ahead of last year’s 11.71 million.
IKAR cut its outlook on the 2024/25 Russian wheat crop by two million tonnes, now at 82 million. The consultancy trimmed 500,000 tonnes on its wheat export estimate, now at 43 million.
