North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Good crop prospects weigh on canola values
U.S. soybeans fall hard as wheat climbs upward
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures slipped back on Tuesday, due to strong prospects for good crops across the Prairies.
A trader said all Prairie crops are off to their best start in quite some time thanks to the rains received. However, that precipitation is very likely to delay up to 40 per cent of the canola planting into June. He added that farmers have been doing a fair bit of selling.
The Prairies are forecast to remain dry over the next few days, but parts of the region are expected to get rain before the weekend.
While canola received good support from gains in Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil, losses in Chicago soybean and soymeal, as well as European rapeseed forced the Canadian oilseed lower. Spillover from sharp upticks in global crude priced weren’t enough to turn canola positive.
The Canadian dollar slipped back by mid-afternoon Tuesday with the loonie at 73.25 U.S. cents compared to Monday’s close of 73.34.
There were 38,599 contracts traded on Tuesday, compared to the 11,051 contracts that changed hands on Monday. Spreading accounted for 18,480 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Jul 668.70 dn 3.50 Nov 690.20 dn 2.60 Jan 698.20 dn 1.70 Mar 705.40 dn 1.20
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Tuesday, due to the large South American harvest.
The United States Department of Agriculture reported export inspections of soybeans for the week ending May 23 were 212,105 tonnes, up from the previous week’s 192,232 tonnes. The year-to-date reached 39.97 million tonnes, but that’s far behind the 48.47 million this time last year.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. kept his projections on Argentina and Brazil soybean output at 50 million tonnes and 147 million tonnes respectively.
The soybean harvest in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul was pegged at 91 per cent complete despite recent flooding.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange put the Argentina soybean harvest at 78 per cent complete with expectations for 50.5 million tonnes.
Poor weather ranging from wet conditions to frost, will likely result in lower crop production in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, including their oilseeds.
CORN futures were lower on Tuesday, also due to ample South American production.
A series of storms across the U.S. brought large amounts of rain to the western Corn Belt, while the eastern half received a lot less. Heavy rains combined with tornadoes are responsible for widespread destruction and more than 20 deaths. More stormy weather was forecast for today for parts of Texas.
The USDA announced a private sale of corn to Mexico, comprised of 165,000 tonnes of old crop and 50,000 tonnes of new crop.
The department said corn export inspections were 1.08 million tonnes, down from the 1.23 million the week before. The year-to-date hit 36.30 million tonnes, well above the 28.73 million a year ago.
Cordonnier maintained his corn production estimates for Argentina and Brazil at 47 million tonnes and 112 million tonnes respectively.
Safras & Mercado dropped their forecast on total Brazilian corn production by 2.8 million tonnes at 123.31 million, largely due to a smaller safrinha harvest.
A report placed the Argentine corn harvest at 28 per cent complete, seven points back of the five-year average. The safrinha harvest in the Brazilian state of Mato Grasso was at two per cent finished.
WHEAT futures were higher on Tuesday, as projections for reduced output in Europe, Russia and Ukraine lent support to the North American markets.
The USDA said wheat export inspections rose to 398,904 tonnes from the previous week’s 228,200 tonnes. The year-to-date came to 18.29 million tonnes, below the 19.57 million this time last year.
While IKAR cut two million tonnes on its forecast for Russian wheat production at 81.5 million, rival SovEcon chopped 3.6 million tonnes from their estimate dropping it to 82.1 million.
Wheat production across North Africa is expected to be lower this year due to drought, but Egypt is projected to reap a near-average crop.
