North American Grain and Oilseed Review: More sharp declines for canola
U.S. markets positioning ahead of July S/D report
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures fell hard on Wednesday, as the Canadian oilseed resumed its downward trend after a one-day respite.
The November contract is now below its 20- and 50-day moving averages.
A broker said fund selling and relatively decent crop conditions on the Prairies are largely behind canola’s sharp losses. He added farmers are currently “not aggressive sellers” and a smaller number of participants can lead to larger price moves.
Should dry conditions further persist across the region, canola would then swing higher, the broker said. However, rain is in the Prairies forecast over the coming days.
Additional pressure on canola came from declines in the Chicago soy complex, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Crude oil was relatively steady, offering little direction to the vegetable oils.
The Canadian dollar eased back on Wednesday afternoon with the loonie dipping to 73.04 U.S. cents compared to Tuesday’s close of 73.12.
There were 49,889 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 38,008 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 17,422 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 681.00 dn 23.10 Jan 689.20 dn 23.20 Mar 695.80 dn 22.50 May 701.40 dn 21.80
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade fell further on Wednesday, adding to their declines.
The United States Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its next supply and demand report on Friday, which will include revised forecasts for planted and harvested areas.
Ahead of the July S/D report, the trade projected a 10 million-bushel increase to old crop ending stocks at 360 million. New crop production is to dip seven million bushels at 4.33 billion, while the carryover is to increase seven million bushels at 302 million.
Brazil’s Conab is set to issue its monthly report on Thursday.
APK-Inform said Ukraine’s 2024/25 rapeseed exports of 3.14 million tonnes fell 15 per cent from the previous year. Ukraine’s exports of the oilseed are to drop another 15 per cent in 2025/26 at 2.70 million tonnes.
CORN futures nudged up on Wednesday in an attempt to correct from recent declines.
The U.S. Corn Belt weather forecast called for one to three inches of rain for this week, with most of the eastern half to get the largest amounts.
Old crop U.S. corn ending stocks are expected to lose 14 million bushels at 1.35 billion. New crop production is to be down 75 million bushels at 15.75 billion with ending stocks slipping to 1.72 billion.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol output for the week ended July 4, increased by an average of 9,000 barrels per day. That brought production to nearly 1.09 million BPD. Stocks contracted 158,000 barrels at 23.96 million.
Ukraine grain trader union UGA projected the country’s 2025/26 corn crop to be 29.25 million tonnes, with exports of 24 million.
WHEAT futures were narrowly mixed on Wednesday, with a small decline in Chicago soft wheat and slight increases in hard red wheats.
U.S. wheat production for 2025/26 is expected slip 14 million bushels at 1.91 billion due to fewer harvested acres. All wheat ending stocks are to ease back four million bushels at 894 million.
