North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Production uncertainty encourages canola demand
U.S. soybeans mixed as corn, wheat bump up
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed higher on Thursday in an attempt to restart its upward trend.
Export demand, especially that from China is believed to be behind the increases as there are concerns there might not be enough canola available for export. The trade leans towards canola production this year being as much as one million tonnes less than 18.98 million Statistics Canada estimated.
Additional support for canola came from strong upticks in soyoil and another spike in Malaysian palm oil. European rapeseed closed mostly higher, while Chicago soybeans were mixed and soymeal was lower. Modest losses in crude oil weighed on vegetable oil values.
The Canadian dollar dipped to 72.19 U.S. cents on Thursday afternoon, compared to Wednesday’s close of 72.24.
There were 48,092 contracts traded on Thursday, compared to 63,603 on Wednesday. Spreading accounted for 25,334 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 638.60 up 6.40 Jan 653.00 up 7.20 Mar 662.60 up 6.50 May 667.90 up 5.90
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed narrowly mixed on Thursday, unable to hold on to gains earlier in the session.
The United States Department of Agriculture announced a private sale for 198,000 tonnes of current crop soybeans to unknown destinations.
The USDA released its export sales report for the week ended Oct. 17 with current crop soybeans at 2.15 million tonnes, towards the high end of market expectations. Soymeal sales of 159,900 tonnes were near the low end of trade guesses. Soyoil sales of 29,000 tonnes exceeded trade predictions.
The USDA attaché in Brasilia upped their estimate for Brazil soybean production for 2024/25 by one million tonnes at 161.0 million, compared to the department’s official call of 169.0 million tonnes. The Brasilia desk put harvested area at 46.3 million hectares, one million less than the USDA forecast.
Rain continued in the seven-day weather outlook for Brazil with the southern half to get above normal amounts.
CORN futures were higher on Thursday due to good export demand.
U.S. corn export sales included 3.6 million tonnes of current crop, surpassing market guesses. New crop sales of 581,200 tonnes came within expectations.
The USDA announced two flash sales for current crop corn, with 227,600 tonnes to Japan and 165,000 tonnes to unknown destinations
WHEAT futures were higher on Thursday, also on the strength of decent export demand.
U.S. wheat export sales of 532,900 tonnes meeting trade expectations.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has called for rain over the coming seven days for an area stretching from Texas to Michigan.
The USDA attaché in Canberra projected Australia’s 2024/25 wheat crop at 28.5 million tonnes, compared to the department’s official estimate of 32.0 million. The attaché estimated yields at 2.19 tonnes per hectare versus USDA’s 2.46.
