North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Questions about Trump’s policies hit canola hard
U.S. soybeans up as grains steady to lower
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures added more losses on Wednesday as the threat of tariffs continued to weigh on values.
Also, concerns have arisen in the United States biofuel industry as to whether the incoming Trump administration will maintain the industry’s tax credit program. Should the credit be ended, it will have a tremendous impact on Canadian canola oil exports to the U.S.
Additional pressure on canola came from sharp losses in Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed. Gains in Malaysian palm oil, as well as Chicago soybeans and soymeal tried to stymie further declines. Crude oil was narrowly mixed and unable to provide a clear direction to the vegetable oils.
A broker said the trade believes Statistics Canada will peg this year’s canola production at 17 million to 18.5 million tonnes when the agency releases its production report on Dec. 5. StatCan current estimate is almost 19 million tonnes.
The StatCan reported the October crush took in 1.1 million tonnes of canola, up 13 per cent from the previous October. Also, the agency said October canola deliveries were 2.3 million tonnes, up 53 per cent from a year ago.
By mid-afternoon Wednesday the Canadian dollar climbed to 71.28 U.S. cents compared to Tuesday’s close of 71.01.
There were 67,195 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 124,512 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 44,022 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Jan 564.60 dn 15.70 Mar 579.10 dn 15.10 May 591.40 dn 14.10 Jul 596.60 dn 13.40
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Wednesday, finding some upward traction.
The United States markets will closed be Thursday for Thanksgiving. Trading is set to resume Friday at 8:30 am CST and will close early at 12:05 pm CST.
There are concerns in the market that the incoming Trump administration might cancel the tax credit for the United States biofuel industry. That drove down soyoil futures.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a private sale for 132,000 tonnes of 2024/25 soybeans to China.
The USDA has postponed its export sales report to Friday. The trade pegs weekly current crop soybean sales at 1.50 million to 2.50 million tonnes.
Exporter group ANEC reduced its call on Brazil soybean exports for November by 340,000 tonnes at 2.46 million.
Weather conditions in South America are forecast to be on the favourable side in the coming days.
CORN futures were steady to lower on Wednesday, as Trump’s trade policies outweighed good news for ethanol production.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported weekly ethanol production hit a record average of 1.12 million barrels per day, up 9,000 BPD from the previous week. Ethanol stocks added 306,000 barrels at 22.87 million.
Projected U.S. corn export sales were pegged at 800,000 to two million tonnes.
ANEC cut 470,000 tonnes from its November projection for Brazil corn exports, now at 5.10 million tonnes.
Algeria acquired 240,000 tonnes of corn, most likely from South America.
WHEAT futures fell on Wednesday, ahead of first notice day for December futures on Friday.
While colder temperatures in the U.S. Northern Plains are likely to kill some of the winter wheat, precipitation for the Ohio Valley will aid that region’s wheat.
Taiwan bought 65,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat, while South Korea purchased 50,000 tonnes of wheat. Algeria issued a tender for an unspecified volume of wheat.
