North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Rally in canola carries on

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, March 28 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures continued to regain lost ground on Tuesday as the funds were exiting their short positions.

Added support for canola came from upswings in the Chicago soy complex and Malaysian palm oil. European rapeseed ended the day mixed. Modest upticks in crude oil prices lent a little bit of help to the vegetable oils.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in Ottawa projected a slight decrease Canada’s total oilseed production in 2023/24. The attaché pegged output at 24.7 million tonnes, down one per cent from the previous year. Statistics Canada (StatCan) won’t come out with its forecast until the end of April.

The federal government will introduce its latest budget at 3 pm CDT.

As the U.S. dollar stepped back, the Canadian dollar was stronger at mid-afternoon Tuesday. The loonie climbed to 73.47 U.S. cents, compared to Monday’s close of 73.09.

There were 28,895 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 38,537 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 19,262 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

                        Price     Change

Canola          May     753.20    up  9.80

                Jul     742.10    up 14.70

                Nov     716.50    up 12.40

                Jan     719.80    up 11.90

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Tuesday, carrying with yesterday’s gains.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is set to release its prospective plantings and quarterly grain stocks reports on Friday at 11 am CDT. The average trade guess placed farm/commercial soybean stocks at 1.742 billion bushels, down 9.8 per cent from March 2022.

The average market guess puts 2023/24 soybeans acres at 88.24 million, up from last year’s 87.45 million.

Brazil export agency ANEC estimated 15.3 million tonnes of soybeans have been exported so far in March, up from 12.2 million a year ago.

A private analyst kept their soybean harvest estimates at 151 million tonnes for Brazil and 26 million for Argentina. The harvest was reported to be 71 per cent complete.

CORN futures were a pinch lower on Tuesday, despite another export sale.

The USDA reported a private sale of 136,000 tonnes of current crop corn to China.

U.S. corn stocks are expected to be 7.470 billion bushels. If so, that would be smallest March stocks since 2014.

The average trade guess placed corn acres for this year at 90.88 million, up from 88.58 million in 2022/23.

The planting of corn in Texas was pegged at 52 per cent in the ground as of March 26. That’s up 16 points from the previous week and seven ahead of this time last year.

ANEC pegged Brazil March corn exports so far at 1.3 million tonnes compared to 898,600 a year ago.

The private analyst held their corn production estimates for Brazil at 121 million tonnes and 36 million for Argentina.

The harvest of Brazil’s first corn crop was placed at 58 per cent complete, four points ahead of this time last year. Meanwhile, the planting of the second corn crop was projected at 96 per cent finished.

The combining of corn in Argentina is underway with more than five per cent done, about eight points behind this time last year.

Ukraine estimated its total 2022/23 grain exports were down 17.7 per cent from the previous year at 36.9 million tonnes of which 21.7 million was corn.

WHEAT futures were higher on Tuesday, with the largest gains in Kansas and Minneapolis while Chicago nudged up a little.

The condition of U.S. winter wheat was reported to be unchanged in Kansas at 19 per cent good to excellent, while dropping eight points in Colorado at 28 per cent. The winter wheat in Texas lost five points to 18 per cent good to excellent while Illinois plummeted 24 points at 58 per cent. Nebraska gained three points to 22 per cent good to excellent, Oklahoma was up five at 34 per cent and Ohio tacked on four at 58 per cent.

U.S. wheat stocks have been projected at 934 million bushels.

The average trade estimate pegged total wheat acres for 2023/24 at 48.85 million, up from 45.74 million in 2022/23.

Ukraine said its 2022/23 wheat exports were 12.6 million tonnes plus 2.27 million of barley.