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North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Rebalancing leads to gains in canola

CBOT fluctuates after yesterday’s strong increases

| 2 min read

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm –Intercontinental Exchange canola futures clung to small increases on Wednesday after pulling back from larger gains.

A trader said there’s a “rebalancing” of canola with Chicago soy, as the Canadian oilseed lagged by upwards to C$100 per tonne over the last two weeks. He noted that soyoil was being sold today in favour of buying canola.

Changes by the United States government to biofuel tax credits continued to pose a threat to canola after being excluded. The trade also suspects the new Trump administration will undermine the U.S. biofuel industry as it promotes fossil fuels.

Canadian canola continued to face supply issues with export sales and domestic use still on pace to outstrip this year’s harvest. Also early forecasts have projected a smaller canola crop in 2025/26 with ending stocks falling below one million tonnes.

Sharp declines in Chicago soyoil plus more modest losses in Chicago soybeans, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil weighed on canola values. There was a little bit of support from upticks in Chicago soymeal. Small losses in crude oil applied pressure on the vegetable oils.

The Canadian dollar was virtually unchanged on Wednesday afternoon with the loonie at 69.59 U.S. cents.

There were 40,708 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 57,858 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 19,182 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

                        Price     Change

Canola          Mar     630.10    up  0.60

                May     639.80    up  1.20

                Jul     646.70    up  2.10

                Nov     636.20    up  4.10

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were lower on Wednesday, correcting from the previous day’s sharp spike.

United States President Donald Trump said his administration could impose a 10 per cent on imports from China effective Feb. 1 and place tariffs on imports from the European Union.

S&P Global cut 700,000 acres from its projection for 2025/26 U.S. planted soybean acres, now at 83.30 million.

China stopped its soybean purchases from five Brazilian companies, citing phytosanitary concerns.

Dry conditions remain a concern for crops in Argentina and southern Brazil. Meanwhile, heat and above normal rainfall will pose challenges to crops in other key growing regions of Brazil, with rain already slowing the soybean harvest.

CORN futures were lower on Wednesday, in sympathy with soybeans.

The USDA announced a private sale of 136,000 tonnes of old crop corn to unknown destinations.

S&P Global upped its call on U.S. planted corn acres for 2025/26 by 700,000 at 93.50 million.

Algeria issued a tender for 240,000 tonnes of corn.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Wednesday, with gains for Minneapolis and losses in Chicago and Kansas City.

Conditions across the U.S. Southern Plains are expected to become drier over the next seven days. Temperatures in the Midwest are to moderate with most of regions to see little, if any, precipitation. A large part of the Northern Plains will get light precipitation during the next three days.

In international purchases, South Korea bought 65,000 tonnes of wheat while Thailand is seeking 195,000 tonnes of wheat.