North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Riding U.S. biofuel policy upward
Only CBOT soyoil, new crop soybeans see increases
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm –Intercontinental Exchange canola futures were stronger on Monday in very heavy activity.
Canola gleaned support from expanded limit up spikes in Chicago soyoil, which are propelled by proposed changes to United States biofuel policies.
“It’s a game changer in the long term,” an analyst said.
The analyst noted that even if Canadian canola oil is excluded from U.S. biofuels, consumer demand on the food side would likely see record exports to the south.
He expects Canadian crush capacity to expand to 14 million tonnes per year, with plants running at 80 to 85 per cent.
The analyst said the charts point to resistance at C$800 to C$850 per tonne in the November contract, although he was somewhat skeptical.
“We have a whole world of weather to get through this summer,” he said.
Canola also received support from sharp hikes in Malaysian palm oil and more subdued gains in new crop Chicago soybeans. Soymeal and European rapeseed were to the downside.
The Canadian dollar was higher Monday afternoon with the loonie at 73.75 U.S. cents compared to Friday’s close of 73.54.
There were 126,760 contracts traded on Monday, compared to 132,093 on Friday. Spreading accounted for 84,018 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Jul 743.10 up 12.10 Nov 735.90 up 12.70 Jan 744.50 up 14.20 Mar 750.30 up 15.20
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher in the new crop positions on Monday. The old crop July contract recovered from earlier losses to close unchanged.
Soyoil continued its spike due to the proposed biofuel changes announced by the United States Environmental Protection Agency on Friday. For today’s trading, the Intercontinental Exchanged raised the daily limit to 4.5 cents per pound.
The U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association issued its report showing the month’s soybean crush was a May record of 192.83 million bushels and five per cent more than a year ago.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported exports inspections for the week ended June 12 included 215,803 tonnes soybeans. Cumulative inspections were about 45.42 million tonnes compared to 40.88 million the same time last year.
CORN futures were lower on Monday due to favourable weather conditions in the U.S.
That could turn projections of the largest domestic harvest into reality. However, there are reports of tar spot fungus across the Midwest.
The USDA said corn inspections were 1.67 million tonnes on the week with the year-to-date at 52.05 million tonnes versus the year ago tally of 40.52 million.
AgRural reported the second Brazil corn harvest to be more than five per cent complete, but 16 points behind the year ago pace.
WHEAT futures were lower on Monday, also caught up in good conditions.
The USDA reported wheat export inspections were 388,752 tonnes and the cumulative tally was 590,086 tonnes versus the 708,876 a year ago. The 2025/26 U.S. wheat marketing year started June 1.
Consultancy SovEcon cut its estimate on Russia wheat exports for June by 200,000 tonnes at 1.5 million. Rival IKAR held its projection of up to one million tonnes.
The Food and Agriculture Organization at the United Nation’s forecast India to have a record wheat crop and that for the European Union is to increase 13 per cent from 2024/25.
