North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Short covering spurs canola increases
Day of losses in Chicago
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures turned around on Wednesday to climb higher, erasing a good chunk of their losses this week.
An analyst credited the strength canola had to a “short-covering bounce.” He suggested that any tariffs the Trump administration could impose on Canada next week could be short-lived due to negative impact on the United States economy.
Canola received some support from upticks in European rapeseed, but Malaysian palm oil was relatively steady, and the Chicago soy complex fell back. Crude oil was slightly lower, adding a little bit more pressure on the vegetable oils.
The May canola contract crossed above its 20-day moving average, further underpinning the oilseed.
The Canadian dollar lost ground Wednesday afternoon, with the loonie falling to 69.78 U.S. cents compared to Tuesday’s close of 69.99.
There were 36,978 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 56,569 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 19,482 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Mar 648.90 up 2.60 May 664.40 up 7.40 Jul 670.30 up 6.70 Nov 653.10 up 5.40
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were lower on Wednesday, due to much needed rain in Argentina.
Tariff concerns continued to weigh on CBOT, with United States President Donald Trump stating his administration will impose 25 per cent levies on most goods imported from Canada and Mexico starting March 4. Energy goods are to be tariffed at 10 per cent. Retaliatory measures are expected from both countries.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Outlook Forum is set to start on Thursday, with the average trade guess for 2025/26 planted soybean acres to pull back to 84.40 million.
Ahead of Thursday’s export sales report, soybeans are expected to be 200,000 to 600,000 tones of old crop, with new crop sales at zero to 50,000. Soymeal export sales are pegged at 200,000 to 525,000 tonnes and soyoil at zero to 30,000 tonnes.
The USDA attaché in Jakarta trimmed their call on 2024/25 Indonesian palm oil production to 45.50 million tonnes, with ending stocks falling to 3.07 million.
ANEC projected Brazil’s soybean exports for February at 9.35 million tonnes, down 370,000 tonnes from the exporter group’s previous estimate.
The European Union said their year-to-date soybean imports are 8.95 million tonnes, up 920,000 tonnes from a year ago.
CORN futures were higher on Wednesday, also due to improved conditions in Argentina.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production for the week ended Feb. 21 averaged 3,000 barrels per day at 1.08 million. Ethanol stocks jumped 1.40 million barrels at 27.60 million, the most since April 2020.
Export sales of U.S. corn are to be 900,000 to 1.65 million tonnes of old crop and zero to 100,000 tonnes of new crop.
ANEC bumped up their projection for Brazil corn exports for February to 1.29 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were down on Wednesday, as conditions are good for the U.S. winter wheat crop.
Light rain remains in the weather forecast for the Eastern U.S. Corn Belt and parts of the plains.
Projections for export sales of U.S. wheat were slotted at 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes of old crop and zero to 100,000 tonnes of new crop.
Total U.S. planted wheat acres for 2025/26 are expected to be 46.70 million.
