North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Tariff threat holds back canola
Soy complex mixed, as corn, wheat lower
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures remained lower on Tuesday after a few attempts to push higher.
The threat of United States tariffs continued to weigh on canola values. Although the U.S. isn’t among Canada’s top foreign buyers of the oilseed, it’s the main export customer of the oil and the meal. An analyst noted that the demand for canola oil and meal would shift to other countries should those U.S. tariffs go ahead on March 4, but the switch would take some time to complete.
Declines in crude oil pressured the vegetable oils, particularly canola with losses in Chicago soyoil adding to the situation. Some relief came from gains in European rapeseed, Malaysian palm oil and Chicago soymeal, while the soybeans were mixed.
The Canadian dollar was weaker Tuesday afternoon, with the loonie falling to 69.96 U.S. cents compared to Monday’s close of 70.30.
There were 56,569 contracts traded on Monday, compared to 55,697 on Friday. Spreading accounted for 34,314 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Mar 646.30 dn 1.60 May 657.00 dn 2.30 Jul 663.60 dn 1.50 Nov 647.70 dn 2.20
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were mostly higher on Tuesday along with the soymeal, but the soyoil stepped back due to declines in crude oil.
United States President Donald Trump said his administration will slap 25 per cent tariffs on most goods the country imports from Canada and Mexico come March 4. Energy imports are to be levied at 10 per cent.
Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor trimmed his estimate on the Brazil soybean harvest by one million tonnes to now 170 million and held his call on Argentina production at 48 million.
Conab said the Brazil soybean harvest was more than 36 per cent complete, almost two points down from the same time last year.
The European Union’s year-to-date U.S. soybean imports are 8.95 million tonnes, compared to 8.03 million tonnes the same time last year.
CORN futures were lower on Tuesday also due to weakness in crude oil.
The U.S. weather forecast has called for light rains for the Eastern Corn Belt for the rest of the week. The Midwest and the Plains are to be dry. Spring-like temperatures are to be felt across the country.
Cordonnier kept his projections on corn production in Brazil and Argentina at 123 million and 46 million tonnes, respectively.
Conab placed the planting of Brazil’s safrinha corn at nearly 54 per cent finished, about five points back from a year ago.
WHEAT futures were lower on Tuesday due to a lack of significant fresh news.
The USDA rated Texas winter wheat at 37 per cent good to excellent, down four points from last week. For Oklahoma, the wheat inched up one point to 34 per cent good to excellent. The state report for Kansas is scheduled to start next week.
SovEcon placed 2024/25 Russian wheat exports at 42.20 million tonnes, down 600,000 from the consultancy’s previous estimate. Meanwhile, SovEcon added 600,000 tonnes to its 2025/26 export projection, now at 38.90 million.
The EU reported its year-to-date soft wheat exports at 13.65 million tonnes versus 21.31 million a year ago.
