North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Upticks in soy, palm oil spur rise in canola
U.S. soybeans, corn higher, wheat mixed
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures swung higher on Monday, benefitting from gains in the Chicago soy complex.
Additional support came from upticks in Malaysian palm oil, while European rapeseed closed mixed. Sharp declines in crude oil were trying to limit the increases in the vegetable oils.
Rail traffic will come to a halt on Thursday after the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference formally issued its notice that its 9,300 members will walk off the job. That said, Canadian Pacific Kansas City and Canadian National Railway indicated they will lockout those union members on Thursday.
While rain is forecast for northern Alberta today, the rest of the province is expected to remain dry. Meanwhile Saskatchewan and Manitoba are to see scattered showers.
Despite the increases in canola, its November contract remained well back of its major moving averages.
The Canadian dollar was stronger by mid-afternoon Monday with the loonie climbing to 73.35 U.S. cents compared to Friday’s close of 72.96.
There were 40,651 contracts traded on Monday, compared to the 41,470 contracts that changed hands on Friday. Spreading accounted for 16,452 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Nov 573.50 up 9.40 Jan 583.80 up 8.70 Mar 591.90 up 7.50 May 597.40 up 7.50
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Monday, after the United States Department of Agriculture announced two private sales of new crop soybeans.
One sale is for 332,000 tonnes to China and the other is for 110,000 tonnes to unknown destinations. An analyst noted that while the sale to China is good news, for bean exports to get back to normal levels they would need to be at least one million tonnes per week.
The USDA reported export inspections for the week ended Aug.15 included 398,233 tonnes of soybeans, a little higher than the previous week. The year-to-date total of 43.78 million tonnes remained well behind the 51.55 million this time last year.
Ahead of the crop progress report, the trade projected U.S. soybeans to stay at 68 per cent good to excellent.
The Pro Farmer crop tour got underway today, with one leg traveling through South Dakota and Nebraska while the other leg ventures into Ohio and Indiana. The tour is set to wrap up with the final results on Thursday. An analyst noted that the tour’s findings really shouldn’t be compared to the USDA latest estimates, rather they should be compared to previous tours’ findings.
Consultancy ASAP Agro said Ukraine’s 2024/25 soybean crop is set to hit an all-time record of 5.7 million tonnes due to an increase in planted area. Last year Ukraine’s farmers harvested five million tonnes of soybeans. Exports are projected to exceed 3.1 million tonnes.
CORN futures were higher on Monday getting spillover from soybeans.
There’s to be little, if any, rain for the next week over the U.S. Corn Belt.
Export inspections of U.S. corn came were just short of 1.17 million tonnes, improving somewhat on last week’s shipments. The year-to-date was a pinch below 50.10 million tonnes, far ahead of last year’s pace of 36.18 million tonnes.
The trade forecast U.S. corn to hold at 67 per cent good to excellent.
WHEAT futures were mixed on Monday, with declines in Minneapolis and Chicago while Kansas City nudged up.
Although weekly outbound movements of U.S. wheat fell hard at 347,519 tonnes, the year-to-date of 4.58 million tonnes remained ahead of the 3.64 million this time last year.
U.S. spring wheat is to dip to 71 per cent good to excellent. The spring wheat harvest was projected to be at 31 per cent complete with the combining of winter wheat at 96 per cent done.
The German association of farm co-operatives estimated the country’s 2024/25 wheat crop at 18.76 million tonnes, down 1.44 million from the association’s previous call.
