North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Weaker Chicago soy weighs on canola
Double digit losses in several contracts at CBOT
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures saw another round of losses on Friday but a broker noted the Canadian oilseed remained cheaper when compared to product values.
The Chicago soy complex was weaker, especially with sharp declines in soyoil. European rapeseed was down as well, but there were gains in Malaysian palm oil. Losses in crude oil were spilling over to further weaken the vegetable oils.
The broker added the trade is getting fed up with the flip-flops over United States tariffs. Although President Donald Trump stated he will impose his levies against imports from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday, he also opened the door to an extension to April.
Also, the broker said ongoing uncertainty over U.S. biofuel tax credits needs to be resolved. In January, changes to the credits removed canola’s eligibility and the Trump administration has yet to indicate their intentions towards the credits.
Cumulative figures from the Canadian Grain Commission showed canola exports of 6.02 million tonnes are almost double those a year ago.
The Canadian dollar was lower Friday afternoon with the loonie pulling back to 69.17 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 69.34.
Today marked the first notice day for March futures.
There were 37,630 contracts traded on Friday, compared to 40,936 on Thursday. Spreading accounted for 19,558 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Mar 635.40 dn 6.80 May 651.10 dn 7.00 Jul 658.10 dn 6.80 Nov 641.50 dn 7.50
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Friday, due to issues regarding tariffs and tax credits.
Although United States President Donald Trump said he will impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week, he left the door open to postponing the levies to April. Trump stated he will add another 10 per cent tariff on imports from China effective on March 4.
Also, the Trump administration has yet to announce a decision regarding the biofuel tax credit changes made in January. There has been speculation the credits could be cancelled.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said the country’s farm exports are to fall by US$3.90 billion to about US$170.50 billion in 2025. The top three foreign buyers in 2025 are expected to be Mexico at US$30.20 billion, Canada at US$28.40 billion and China at US$22 billion.
The USDA reported a private sale for 20,000 tonnes of soyoil to unknown destinations.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated the Argentine soybean crop at 25 per cent excellent, up seven points on the week.
CORN futures were weaker as well on Friday, due to a lack of fresh news.
The BAGE said Argentina’s corn rose three points at 21 per cent excellent.
The South American weather outlook has favourable harvest conditions for Brazil and rain for Argentina.
WHEAT futures pulled back on Friday, as there’s little to threaten the U.S. winter wheat crop.
The U.S. weather outlook has called for light to moderate precipitation over the eastern half of the Plains while other winter wheat growing areas could get heavier amounts.
India has been forecast to get above normal temperatures in March, which could stress its wheat crop. Estimates suggested India is on track for a bumper crop, but if that’s curtailed the government could lower or eliminate tariffs on wheat imports.
FranceAgriMer rated the country’s wheat crop down one point at 73 per cent good to excellent – the second lowest rating over the five years.
