North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Weaker comparable oils too much for canola

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures turned around to close weaker on Thursday, despite recovering from losses earlier in the session.

Pressure on the Canadian oilseed came from about-faces in the Chicago soy complex and in European rapeseed. Mounting declines in crude oil proved to be too much for the vegetable oils and pulled them to the downside. Strong gains in Malaysian palm oil had underpinned the previous increases.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada issued its September report, which included the recently updated crop data from Statistics Canada. For 2024/24, AAFC held canola exports at 7.50 million tonnes and raised domestic use to 12.17 million, while canola ending stocks were bumped up to 2.50 million.

Saskatchewan reported its harvest is 79 per cent complete overall, with the province’s canola at 56 per cent finished.

By mid-afternoon Thursday, the Canadian dollar dipped to 74.23 U.S. cents compared to Wednesday’s close of 74.28.

There were 68,026 contracts traded on Thursday, compared to 68,316 on Wednesday. Spreading accounted for 42,120 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

                        Price     Change

Canola          Nov     600.90    dn 10.40

                Jan     613.70    dn 10.50

                Mar     624.30    dn 11.60

                May     631.40    dn 12.50

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade turned weaker Thursday when gains were erased by declines in crude oil.

The United States Department of Agriculture published its export sales report for the week ended Sept. 19, showing 1.57 million tonnes of current crop soybeans, which were within market expectations.

U.S. old crop soymeal had a net reduction of 7,900 tonnes but new crop sales of 279,900 tonnes. Soyoil export sales included 900 tonnes of old crop and 3,500 tonnes of new crop.

Dry conditions in central Argentina have led to a number of wildfires that have destroyed crops, livestock and buildings.

That said, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecast Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crop at 52.0 million tonnes, versus the USDA’s projection of 51.0 million.

CORN futures were lower on Thursday, unable to fend off pressure from soybeans and wheat.

The USDA announced a private sale for 115,000 tonnes of current crop corn to Mexico.

The department reported corn export sales of 535,100 tonnes, which were short of trade guesses.

The USDA attaché in Cairo forecast Egypt corn production for 2024/25 at seven million tonnes, down from 7.20 million in 2023/24. Imports of eight million tonnes in 2024/25 nudge up from 7.80 million the year before.

The BAGE projected Argentina’s 2024/25 corn crop at 47.0 million tonnes, below the USDA’s estimate of 51.0 million tonnes.

China placed its annual import tariff quota at 7.20 million tonnes for 2024/25.

WHEAT futures were lower Thursday as export sales failed to meet expectations.

U.S. wheat export sales hit a marketing-year low of 158,900 tonnes, which were below trade projections of 225,000 to 600,000 tonnes. New crop sales were 10,000 tonnes.

The USDA’s Cairo desk pegged Egypt’s wheat production for 2024/25 at 9.20 million tonnes, up from 8.87 million the previous year. Wheat imports are projected to remain at 12.50 million. Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer.

IKAR chopped 400,000 tonnes from its call on Russian wheat production for 2024/25 now at 81.80 million tonnes due to adverse growing conditions in Siberia. The consultancy estimate 2024/25 wheat exports at 44.0 million tonnes, compared to 53.0 million the previous year.

SovEcon said 20.50 million acres of 2024/25 winter wheat have been planted so far in Russia, down 10.8 per cent from a year ago due to dry conditions.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, in using recently updated data from Statistics Canada trimmed the country’s all wheat production for 2024/25 by 64,000 tonnes from August at 34.29 million. Exports remained at 25.30 million tonnes, while domestic use slipped to 8.65 million. Ending stocks jump from 2.80 million tonnes in August to now 5.05 million.

China set its 2024/25 wheat import tariff quota at 9.64 million tonnes.

Japan bought 112,580 tonnes of wheat from Australia, Canada and the U.S. with about 57 per cent of the purchase from the latter.