North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Weaker soy complex pulls down canola
Losses across the board in Chicago
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed lower on Tuesday but came away from much larger declines. Trading resumed following Remembrance Day.
Pressure on the Canadian oilseed came from sharp losses in the Chicago soy complex, as well as decreases in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Small upticks in crude oil lent some support to the vegetable oils.
Speculation in the market that China was going to slap levies on Canadian canola didn’t come to fruition during the long weekend. However, there are other unconfirmed reports that federal Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay is to travel to China to discuss issues pertaining to canola.
Meanwhile, the federal government imposed binding arbitration in the labour disputes at the ports of Vancouver and Montreal. While those work stoppages didn’t directly affect canola, there were disruptions in canola oil exports.
There were 62,874 contracts traded on Tuesday, compared to 65,325 on Friday. Spreading accounted for 35,928 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Jan 658.40 dn 6.70 Mar 671.10 dn 6.80 May 679.00 dn 7.10 Jul 681.40 dn 8.10
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Tuesday, adding to Monday’s losses.
The United States Department of Agriculture will release its crop progress report today after being postponed due to Veterans’ Day. The trade believes crop ratings for soybeans, corn and wheat will improve this week.
The USDA reported soybean export inspections for the week ended Nov. 7 of 2.28 million tonnes, up slightly from the previous week. Year-to-date inspections reached 15.23 million tonnes compared to 14.38 million a year ago.
Brazilian exporter group ANEC raised its call on the country’s November soybean exports to 2.81 million tonnes.
The Rosario Grain Exchange said recent showers in Argentina will help the country’s soybean and corn crops, while drier conditions this week will aid planting.
Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier held his estimates for soybean production in Brazil and Argentina at 165 million and 57 million tonnes respectively.
CORN futures were lower on Tuesday in sympathy with soybeans.
Rain is in the forecast for the U.S. Southern Plains.
The USDA announced a private sale for 110,500 tonnes of current crop corn to Mexico.
U.S. corn export inspections tallied 793,012 tonnes, down a pinch from the week before. The year-to-date hit 8.23 million tonnes versus 6.27 million this time last year.
Cordonnier held firm on his outlooks on for Brazil and Argentina corn production at 125 million and 48 million tonnes respectively.
ANEC increased its estimate of November Brazil corn exports to 5.38 million tonnes.
France bumped up its projection of its 2024/25 corn crop to 14.60 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures fell back on Tuesday, on projections of improving crop ratings.
U.S. wheat export inspections were up from last week to 347,321 tonnes, with the year-to-date at 10.11 million tonnes compared to 7.48 million a year ago.
France nudged up its forecast of its 2024/25 soft wheat crop to 25.56 million tonnes.
Egypt said its strategic wheat reserves are sufficient for the next four to six months.
