North American grain/oilseed review: Canola at two-week highs

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market continued to correct off nearby lows on Wednesday, hitting its highest levels in two weeks in the nearby May contract.

Gains in Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil provided spillover support, although European rapeseed was mixed. The spread between canola and rapeseed remains historically wide, which analysts expected should be encouraging European demand.

Uncertainty over looming tariffs from the United States, set to go into effect on April 2, remained a bearish influence in the background.

There were 54,541 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 42,611 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 32,596 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were narrowly mixed at the final bell, underpinned by expectations for smaller soybean plantings in the United States this spring. Chart-based positioning and gains in soyoil added to the firmer tone for most of the session. However, recently harvested Brazilian supplies kept a lid on the upside, despite declining production estimates from the South American country.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s prospective plantings report will be released March 31, with average trade guesses calling for a three to four million acre cut from the 87.050 million acres of soybeans seeded last year.

Quarterly stocks data will also be released at that time. Average trade guesses call for an increase in soybean stocks as of March 1 from the 1.85 billion bushels on hand at the same time in 2024.

Meanwhile, CORN futures were pressured by expectations for increased U.S. corn acres this spring.

After seeding 90.6 million acres of corn last year, average trade guesses are calling for an increase of at least three million acres in 2025, with some analysts forecasting U.S. corn plantings as high as 96.6 million acres. U.S. corn stocks as of March 1 are forecast to tighten from 8.35 billion bushels a year ago.

U.S. ethanol production eased slightly in the latest weekly report, dipping by 52,000 barrels per day at 1.053 million barrels per day. Stocks of the renewable fuel were still higher though, rising to 27.35 million barrels.

WHEAT was lower across the board, with forecasts for improving moisture conditions across parts of the U.S. winter wheat growing areas next week behind some of the selling pressure. Uncertainty over ceasefire talks in Ukraine kept some caution in market.

U.S. spring wheat acres are generally expected to hold steady with the 10.6 million acres seeded last year. All-wheat area is generally expected to be within a million acres of last year’s 46.1-million-acre crop. Quarterly wheat stocks are generally forecast to increase from 1.1 billion bushels the previous year.