North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola avoids losses, wheat tumbles

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market closed steady to higher on Monday with mixed sentiment in comparable oils.

Chicago soyoil was steady while Malaysian palm oil was lower and European rapeseed was higher. Crude oil nearly gained US$2 per barrel ahead of major reports, as well as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates later this week.

Three low-pressure systems will bring rain across the Prairies this week with the northern halves of Alberta and Saskatchewan expected to see between 25 to 65 millimetres.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down more than one-tenth of a U.S. cent compared to Friday’s close.

There were 53,252 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 51,519 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 31,316 of the contracts traded.

United States WHEAT futures took a tumble on Monday as seasonal weakness and fund selling combined with a strong U.S. dollar and Turkey’s import ban to pressure prices. July Chicago and Minneapolis spring wheat had their ninth consecutive negative session.

Ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) monthly World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) to be released on June 12, new crop U.S. wheat production is expected by the trade to be 1.88 billion bushels on average, down 22 million from the May estimate.

Meanwhile, old crop U.S. ending stocks would be unchanged at 688 million bushels, while 12 million bushels would be added to new crop carryout at 778 million.

Old crop world ending stocks would be down 460,000 tonnes at 257.34 million, while new crop would be down 2.43 million at 251.18 million.

APK-Inform projected Ukraine’s 2023-24 wheat production at 20 million tonnes.

July CORN traded rangebound on Monday and closed above the US$4.50 per tonne mark for the second time in three sessions.

The trade is expecting old crop U.S. ending stocks to be 2.005 billion bushels on average, down 17 million from May’s estimates. Meanwhile, new crop carryout would be 2.079 billion bushels, down 23 million.

For world ending stocks, the old crop estimate would be down 1.73 million tonnes at 311.35 million, while the new crop estimate would be down 1.72 million tonnes at 310.55 million.

Traders were also expecting a two-million tonne drop in Argentine corn production at 51 million, while Brazil’s would be down one million tonnes at 121 million.

The USDA is expected to show corn planting at 95 to 96 per cent complete ahead of today’s crop progress report.

Brazilian corn production is expected to be down one million tonnes at 121 million. In south-central Brazil, the safrinha corn harvest is 10.4 per cent complete.

Ukraine’s corn harvest at 26.77 million tonnes, roughly half of the country’s grain harvest.

July SOYBEANS closed in positive territory for the second time in three sessions, but unlike the previous two sessions, they didn’t trade above US$12 per bushel.

The first U.S. soybean crop rating will be released this afternoon with estimates of at least 70 per cent good to excellent.

The trade is anticipating old crop U.S. ending stocks at 346 million bushels on average, down six million from May. New crop ending stocks would be 448 million, down three million from last month.

World old crop ending stocks were projected to be down 1.45 million tonnes from May at 110.33 million, while world new crop carryout would be down 1.25 million tonnes at 127.25 million.

The National Oilseeds Processors Association (NOPA) revised its April U.S. soybean crush, up 3.37 million bushels at 169.4 million, while 77 million pounds of soyoil stocks were added at 1.832 billion, due to reporting errors in Indiana.

Brazilian soybean production is expected by the trade to be down 2.2 million tonnes on average at 151.8 million, with no changes expected for Argentina at 50 million.