North American grain/oilseed review: Canola climbs higher

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Thursday, recovering from overnight declines to take back all its losses from earlier in the week.

Gains in Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed futures provided spillover support, with the move back above C$600 per tonne in the November contract bullish from a technical standpoint.

End-user bargain hunting, as Canadian canola remains attractively priced compared to most other global oilseeds, contributed to the strength.

However, increased farmer selling at the highs kept a lid on the upside.

There were an estimated 58,244 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 64,270 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 35,418 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved higher on Thursday, with chart-based positioning a feature as values recovered after hitting their lowest levels in seven weeks.

Improving moisture conditions in Brazil and seasonal harvest pressure tempered the upside.

The International Grains Council released updated world supply/demand estimates, raising their call for world soybean production in 2024/25 to 421 million tonnes. That would be up by two million tonnes from an earlier estimate, and well above the 395 million tonnes grown in 2023/24. Soybean carryout was upped to 86 million tonnes, from an estimated 72 million the previous crop year.

CORN was stronger, boosted by solid export sales. The United States Department of Agriculture announced private export sales of 197,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico this morning, with an additional 101,000 tonnes of corn to unknown destinations.

U.S. ethanol production of 1.04 million barrels per day was little changed in the latest weekly report, with supplies of the renewable fuel up slightly at 22.3 million barrels.

The IGC left its call on world corn production unchanged at 1.224 billion tonnes but raised its carryout estimate by three million, to 279 million tonnes. That would still be down by seven million on the year.

WHEAT was underpinned by declining production estimates out of Russia.

Consultancy SovEcon cut their call on Russia’s 2024/25 wheat production to 81.5 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 82.9 million tonnes citing poor yields in Siberia. That compares with the 92.8 million tonnes grown last year.