North American grain/oilseed review: Canola climbs higher

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was sharply higher on Friday, finding continued support from Thursday’s Statistics Canada production estimate. Chart-based buying added to the gains, as prices moved above nearby resistance.

The government agency lowered its call on 2024/25 canola production by over a million tonnes, and the market was working to ration demand. At 17.8 million tonnes, the canola crop comes in well short of the 19.2 million tonnes grown the previous year.

Gains in Chicago soyoil provided additional spillover support, although European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were mixed.

Canada exported 193,400 tonnes of canola during the week ended Dec. 1, bringing the crop-year-to-date total to 3.89 million tonnes, according to the latest Canadian Grain Commission data. That compares with only 2.03 million tonnes through four months of the previous crop year.

There were an estimated 89,582 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 69,071 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 79,744 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade held within a narrow range on Friday, as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend. While strength in soyoil was supportive, meal was down on the day.

Relatively favourable South American growing conditions remained a bearish influence overhanging the soybean market, with more global export demand shifting to Brazil.

The United States Department of Agriculture releases updated supply/demand estimates on Dec. 10, and pre-report expectations call for only minor adjustments to the soybean balance sheet.

CORN futures hit their best levels in two weeks on Friday, with Thursday’s gains supportive from a technical standpoint and encouraging more buying interest.

Average trade guesses call for a 50 million bushel cut to U.S. corn ending stocks in next week’s report.

Recent export demand for U.S. corn has been strong, adding to the firm tone. However, the good South American crop prospects tempered the upside.

WHEAT was narrowly mixed, lacking any clear direction despite reports of poor-quality Russian crops that will need to be replanted in the spring.

Meanwhile, winter wheat seeding in France is nearly complete, with only four percent of intended acres left to go in the ground. Condition ratings were pegged at 86 per cent good to excellent — slipping one point on the week.